Edition of July 8, 2026 · built from 8,682 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 9:24 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put 65° to 66° at 72% this morning. · ▲ 66 points overnight
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Moana Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 55 | Culture | 11% ▼ 55 7d: ▼ 55 |
| Will the minimum temperature be >77° on Jul 8, 2026? 78° or above | News | 91% ▲ 72 7d: ▲ 72 |
| Will the minimum temperature be 65-66° on Jul 8, 2026? 65° to 66° | News | 72% ▲ 66 7d: ▲ 66 |
| Will average **gas prices** be above $3.820? Above 3.820 | Everything Else | 64% ▲ 58 7d: ▲ 58 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 72.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 8, 2026? Above $72.99 | Commodities | 76% ▲ 42 7d: ▲ 42 |
| Will UAE Team Emirates-XRG win the 2026 Tour de France? UAE Team Emirates-XRG | Everything Else | 26% ▼ 52 7d: ▼ 52 |
| Will the minimum temperature be 73-74° on Jul 8, 2026? 73° to 74° | News | 97% ▲ 53 7d: ▲ 53 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 76 USD/Bbl on July 08, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? above $76 | Commodities | 88% ▲ 47 7d: ▲ 47 |
| Will drop out of the 2026 United States Senate election in Maine before Jul 9, 2026? Before Jul 9, 2026 | Politics | 34% ▼ 31 7d: ▼ 31 |
| Will July 6 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)? July 6 | Everything Else | 57% ▲ 48 7d: ▲ 48 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Norway vs England: To Advance Norway advances · settles in 3 days | World Cup | 36% — |
| Will Conor McGregor win the Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway professional MMA fight scheduled for Jul 11, 2026? Conor McGregor · settles in 4 days | UFC | 36% — |
| Will Jannik Sinner win the Wimbledon Men's Singles? Jannik Sinner · settles in 5 days | Tennis | 66% — |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 11 days | World Cup | 33% — |
| Will Trinity and Bryce win Love Island USA Season 8? Trinity and Bryce · settles in 54 days | Everything Else | 72% ▼ 7 7d: ▼ 7 |
| France vs Morocco: To Advance Morocco advances · settles tomorrow | World Cup | 22% — |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 11 days | World Cup | 19% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 11 days | World Cup | 19% — |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 11 days | World Cup | 16% — |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 175 days | Everything Else | 14% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Forecast | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway fight occur before Jul 13, 2026? Before Jul 13, 2026 · settles in 5 days | UFC | 93.5% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 7 |
| The Invite Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 90 · settles in 5 days | Culture | 98.0% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Logan Zapp win the Zapp vs Bennour Dit Sahli: M15 Monastir Round of 32 match? Logan Zapp · settles today | Tennis | 96.5% — |
| Will Donald Trump make above 220 Truth Social posts the week of Jul 5, 2026? >220 · settles in 4 days | Everything Else | 95.0% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 70.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 8, 2026? Above $70.99 · settles today | Commodities | 96.5% ▲ 23 7d: ▲ 23 |
| Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $4 at 4 PM ET on Jul 10? Above $4.00 · settles in 2 days | Everything Else | 98.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will xperiment by Ken Carson have above 40000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 03, 2026 - July 09, 2026 tracking week? Above 40K · settles in 4 days | Culture | 96.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 69.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 8, 2026? Above $69.99 · settles today | Commodities | 98.0% ▲ 8 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7419.9999 on Jul 8, 2026 at 10am EDT? 7,420 or above · settles today | Markets | 96.5% — |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7414.9999 on Jul 8, 2026 at 10am EDT? 7,415 or above · settles today | Markets | 97.5% — |