Edition of July 10, 2026 · built from 8,973 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 8:40 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Ryan Colby at 26% this morning. · ▼ 45 points overnight
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Missouri have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026? Missouri | Everything Else | 6% ▼ 56 7d: ▼ 80 |
| Will the #1 Show on Netflix have at least 12 million views? At least 12 million | Culture | 12% ▼ 77 7d: ▼ 84 |
| Will Ryan Colby win the Arseneault vs Colby: M25 Laval Round of 16 match? Ryan Colby | Tennis | 26% ▼ 45 7d: ▼ 45 |
| #2 US Netflix Show on Jul 13, 2026? I Will Find You: Limited Series | Culture | 79% ▲ 62 7d: ▲ 62 |
| Will Marc Guehi start for England? Marc Guehi starts for England | World Cup | 30% ▼ 63 7d: ▼ 63 |
| What will the announcers say during Spain vs Belgium? Gianni / Infantino | World Cup | 14% ▼ 44 7d: ▼ 38 |
| Will Kavan win Love Island UK Season 13? Kavan | Everything Else | 57% ▲ 54 7d: ▲ 42 |
| Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $6 at 4 PM ET on Jul 10? Above $6.00 | Everything Else | 86% ▲ 53 7d: ▲ 84 |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 2.999 USD/MMBtu on July 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? above $2.999 | Commodities | 28% ▼ 64 7d: ▼ 68 |
| Yomiuri Giants vs Yokohama DeNA BayStars winner? Yomiuri Giants | Sports | 4% ▼ 42 7d: ▼ 42 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 9 days | World Cup | 39% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Norway vs England: To Advance Norway advances · settles tomorrow | World Cup | 36% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Conor McGregor win the Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway professional MMA fight scheduled for Jul 11, 2026? Conor McGregor · settles tomorrow | UFC | 34% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Spain vs Belgium: To Advance Spain advances · settles today | World Cup | 74% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the Genesis Scottish Open? Rory McIlroy · settles tomorrow | Golf | 20% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 11 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 9 days | World Cup | 18% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 9 days | World Cup | 16% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 9 days | World Cup | 16% — |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 173 days | Everything Else | 16% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will Alexander Zverev win the Fery vs Zverev: Semifinal match? Alexander Zverev · settles today | Tennis | 88% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 3 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Forecast | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Yannik Kelm win the Paardekooper vs Kelm: M25 The Hague Quarterfinal match? Yannik Kelm · settles today | Tennis | 97.5% — |
| Will Kenzie be eliminated from Love Island USA Season 8 before Jul 11, 2026? Kenzie · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 95.5% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway fight occur before Jul 13, 2026? Before Jul 13, 2026 · settles in 3 days | UFC | 96.5% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Will Dylan be eliminated from Love Island USA Season 8 before Jul 11, 2026? Dylan · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 95.5% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 69.49 USD/Bbl on Jul 10, 2026? Above $69.49 · settles today | Commodities | 97.0% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 4 |
| The Invite Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 94 · settles in 3 days | Culture | 93.5% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Will xperiment by Ken Carson have above 40000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 03, 2026 - July 09, 2026 tracking week? Above 40K · settles in 2 days | Culture | 98.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 68.49 USD/Bbl on Jul 10, 2026? Above $68.49 · settles today | Commodities | 98.0% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the minimum temperature be >64° on Jul 10, 2026? 65° or above · settles tomorrow | News | 96.0% — |
| Will the minimum temperature be >70° on Jul 10, 2026? 71° or above · settles tomorrow | News | 94.5% — |