Edition of July 13, 2026 · built from 9,111 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 2:24 PM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put above $57.75 at 18% this morning. · ▼ 72 points overnight
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 76.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 13, 2026? Above $76.99 | Commodities | 98% ▲ 90 7d: ▲ 94 |
| Will the gold close price be above 4017 USD/t.oz on July 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? above $4017 | Commodities | 6% ▼ 91 7d: ▼ 91 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 80.50 USD/Bbl on July 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? above $80.50 | Commodities | 96% ▲ 82 7d: ▲ 92 |
| Will the minimum temperature be 74-75° on Jul 13, 2026? 74° to 75° | News | 98% ▲ 76 7d: ▲ 76 |
| Will the silver close price be above 57.75 USD/t.oz on July 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? above $57.75 | Commodities | 18% ▼ 72 7d: ▼ 74 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 81-82° on Jul 13, 2026? 81° to 82° | News | 86% ▲ 70 7d: ▲ 70 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 74.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 14, 2026? Above $74.99 | Commodities | 86% ▲ 59 7d: ▲ 76 |
| Will Get-in price of the Semi-Final - World Cup Match 101 (AT&T Stadium) on TicketData be above $1750 on 3:00PM ET July 13th, 2026? Above $1750 | World Cup | 4% ▼ 43 7d: ▼ 74 |
| Will the high temp in NYC be 84-85° on Jul 13, 2026? 84° to 85° | News | 80% ▲ 40 7d: ▲ 40 |
| Will the high temp in LA be >76° on Jul 13, 2026? 77° or above | News | 24% ▼ 35 7d: ▼ 35 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| England vs Argentina: To Advance Argentina advances · settles in 2 days | World Cup | 46% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| France vs Spain: To Advance France advances · settles tomorrow | World Cup | 60% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Luca Van Assche win the Lajovic vs Van Assche: Round Of 32 match? Luca Van Assche · settled | Tennis | 60% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 6 days | World Cup | 39% — 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will France play Argentina in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Final? France vs Argentina · settles in 6 days | World Cup | 28% — 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 6 days | World Cup | 22% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 6 days | World Cup | 21% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 170 days | Everything Else | 20% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 6 days | World Cup | 17% ▼ 2 |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the The Open Championship? Scottie Scheffler · settles in 5 days | Golf | 12% — 7d: ▼ 4 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Forecast | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Ana Filipa Santos win the Santos vs Kawano Cho: W35 Sao Paulo Round of 32 match? Ana Filipa Santos · settles today | Tennis | 94.5% — |
| Will CPI rise more than -0.3% in June 2026? Above -0.3% · settles today | Economy | 94.0% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 76.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 13, 2026? Above $76.99 · settles today | Commodities | 98.5% ▲ 90 7d: ▲ 94 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 77.49 USD/Bbl on Jul 13, 2026? Above $77.49 · settles today | Commodities | 97.0% ▲ 88 7d: ▲ 92 |
| Will over 0.5 goals be scored? Reg Time: Over 0.5 goals scored · settles tomorrow | World Cup | 93.5% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will there be more than 100 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026? Above 100 · settles today | Everything Else | 96.5% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Top US Netflix Show on Jul 13, 2026? Worst Neighbor Ever: Season 1 · settles today | Culture | 96.5% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 18 |
| Will the Bank of Korea Hike 1-25bps at the July Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Board meeting? Hike 1-25bps · settles in 2 days | Everything Else | 94.5% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Top Global Netflix Movie on Jul 13, 2026? Enola Holmes 3 · settles today | Culture | 94.5% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 14 |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7479.9999 on Jul 13, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,480 or above · settles today | Markets | 96.0% — |