Today’s Number
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 NY-13 Democratic primary be above 70000?
Market-consensus odds put Above 70k at 66% this morning. · ▼ 29 points since this morning · on unusually heavy volume
Edition of July 15, 2026
Edition of July 15, 2026 · built from 8,337 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories.
66%
What Moved
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Jude Bellingham score the most goals for England in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup? Jude Bellingham | Surging World Cup | 44% ▲ 31 7d: ▲ 27 |
| What will Marcello Hernández say during 2026 ESPYS Opening Monologue? Messi / Ronaldo | Everything Else | 60% ▲ 43 |
| Will Rayan Cherki score a goal in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup? Rayan Cherki | World Cup | 44% ▲ 34 7d: ▲ 35 |
| Will Get-in price of the 2026 World Cup Final on TicketData be above $7000 on 3:00PM ET July 18th, 2026? Above $7000 | Surging World Cup | 46% ▼ 23 7d: ▼ 22 |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 NY-13 Democratic primary be above 70000? Above 70k | Surging Politics | 66% ▼ 29 7d: ▼ 28 |
| Will Ryan Reynolds attend 2026 FIFA World Cup Final in 2026? Ryan Reynolds | Surging World Cup | 28% ▲ 24 7d: ▼ 40 |
| Will Harry Kane win the Bronze Boot? Harry Kane | World Cup | 24% ▼ 31 |
| What will the announcers say during 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup Final? GOAT | Surging World Cup | 36% ▲ 19 7d: ▲ 14 |
| What will Donald Trump say during Speech to the Nation? China / Chinese | Everything Else | 93% ▲ 20 7d: ▲ 46 |
| Will Finley be eliminated from Love Island UK S13 before Jul 18, 2026? Finley | Everything Else | 56% ▼ 18 7d: ▲ 26 |
Up in the Air
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Yes · settles in 16 days | Culture | 50% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election? Troy Jackson · settles in 111 days | Politics | 52% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 20 |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 4 days | World Cup | 58% ▲ 35 7d: ▲ 39 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 4 days | World Cup | 42% ▲ 24 7d: ▲ 23 |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Yes · settles in 146 days | Economy | 35% ▼ 8 7d: ▼ 10 |
| The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 95 · settles in 5 days | Culture | 70% ▲ 48 7d: ▲ 39 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 77.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 17, 2026? Above $77.99 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 70% ▲ 13 7d: ▲ 62 |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026? Before Nov 1, 2026 · settles in 170 days | Everything Else | 30% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 5 |
| Will Lionel Messi or Kylian Mbappé have more goals in the FIFA World Cup? Kylian Mbappé · settles in 4 days | World Cup | 26% ▼ 22 7d: ▼ 12 |
| Will it be confirmed that Troy Jackson is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? Troy Jackson · settles in 24 days | Politics | 78% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 30 |
| Will Alana Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding? Yes · settles in 168 days | Culture | 78% — |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 168 days | Everything Else | 20% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 845 days | Everything Else | 20% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 845 days | Politics | 20% — |
| Will The Real Me by Future have above 140000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 10, 2026 -July 16, 2026 tracking week? Above 140K · settles in 4 days | Culture | 82% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 29600 and 29699.9900 at the end of Jul 17, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 29,600 to 29,699.99 · settles in 2 days | Markets | 17% ▲ 10 7d: ▲ 10 |
| Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Yes · settles in 168 days | Economy | 13% ▼ 4 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 845 days | Politics | 12% — |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the The Open Championship? Scottie Scheffler · settles in 3 days | Golf | 12% — 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? Before October · settles in 170 days | Everything Else | 12% — 7d: ▼ 7 |
Basically Decided
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Forecast | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| How many 2026 FIFA World Cup matches will Donald Trump attend this season? At least 1 · settles in 5 days | World Cup | 95.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will the high temp in LA be 80-81° on Jul 15, 2026? 80° to 81° · settles today | News | 96.5% ▲ 47 7d: ▲ 47 |
| The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 93 · settles in 5 days | Culture | 94.5% ▲ 38 7d: ▲ 38 |
| Will New York Knicks win Best Team award at the 2026 ESPYS? New York Knicks · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 93.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Best AI this week Claude · settles in 5 days | Everything Else | 98.5% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Tom Cruise attend 2026 FIFA World Cup Final in 2026? Tom Cruise · settles in 5 days | World Cup | 96.5% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 70 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 77.99 USD/Bbl on July 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? above $77.99 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 95.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 42 |
| Will the high temp in Austin be <82° on Jul 15, 2026? 81° or below · settles today | News | 96.5% ▲ 37 7d: ▲ 37 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 79.99 USD/Bbl on July 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? above $79.99 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 93.0% ▲ 8 7d: ▲ 74 |
| How many Federal Reserve posts on X the week ending on Jul 16, 2026? >20 · settles today | Economy | 94.0% ▲ 34 7d: ▲ 75 |