Today’s Number
Will Gemini run an ad during the Big Game 2027?
Market-consensus odds put Gemini at 48% this morning. · ▼ 28 points overnight · on unusually heavy volume
Edition of July 20, 2026
Edition of July 20, 2026 · built from 7,546 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
48%
What Moved
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 82.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 21, 2026? Above $82.99 | Commodities | 25% ▼ 44 7d: ▼ 20 |
| What will Benjamin Netanyahu say during Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo? Hamas / Hezbollah | Everything Else | 66% ▲ 47 7d: ▲ 47 |
| Will Electronic Arts announce close its take-private acquisition before Sep 1, 2026? Surging Before Sep 1, 2026 | Everything Else | 89% ▲ 46 7d: ▲ 52 |
| What will the announcers say during Sun vs Mercury Women's Professional Basketball Game? Airball / Airballs / Airballed | WNBA | 16% ▼ 51 |
| Will Ryan Blaney win the 2026 NASCAR In-Season Challenge? Surging Ryan Blaney | NASCAR | 68% ▲ 39 7d: ▲ 37 |
| Will any man break (not tie) the outdoor world record for the Men's 110m Hurdles after Issuance and in 2026? Surging Men's 110m Hurdles | Everything Else | 48% ▲ 42 7d: ▲ 42 |
| Will total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States for week ending July 24, 2026 be above 6000? Above 6000 | Everything Else | 80% ▲ 52 7d: ▲ 52 |
| Will SOFR be above 4.00 by end of Q4 2026? Above 4.00% | Everything Else | 4% ▼ 46 7d: ▼ 58 |
| #2 Global Netflix Movie on Jul 20, 2026? Voicemails for Isabelle | Culture | 58% ▼ 29 7d: ▲ 52 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July? Yes | Everything Else | 32% ▼ 21 7d: ▲ 42 |
Up in the Air
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations? Inde Navarrette · settles in 185 days | Culture | 50% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 2 |
| New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Yes · settles in 11 days | Culture | 50% — |
| Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? Darline Graham Nordone · settles in 22 days | Politics | 60% ▼ 5 7d: ▲ 53 |
| Will Karl Poling win the Zamora vs Poling: Qualification Round 1 match? Karl Poling · settles today | Tennis | 60% — |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 58 days | Economy | 38% — |
| Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election? Troy Jackson · settles in 106 days | Politics | 66% — 7d: ▲ 13 |
| Top US Netflix Show on Jul 20, 2026? Little House on the Prairie: Season 1 · settles tomorrow | Culture | 32% ▲ 16 7d: ▲ 6 |
| How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? 0 · settles in 9 days | Economy | 32% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 16 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 164 days | Everything Else | 24% ▼ 6 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026? Before Nov 1, 2026 · settles in 165 days | Everything Else | 24% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 8 |
| Will Alexander Volkanovski be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026? Yes · settles in 164 days | UFC | 23% ▲ 12 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Paula Badosa win the Sherif Ahmed Abdelaziz vs Badosa: Final match? Paula Badosa · settles today | Tennis | 22% — |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 841 days | Politics | 20% — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 841 days | Everything Else | 20% — |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 139 days | Sports | 84% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 83.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 20, 2026? Above $83.99 · settles today | Commodities | 14% ▼ 22 7d: ▲ 33 |
| Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Yes · settles in 164 days | Economy | 14% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 31, 2026? Before August · settles in 42 days | Everything Else | 87% ▼ 10 7d: ▼ 10 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 841 days | Politics | 12% — |
Basically Decided
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Forecast | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 94 · settles today | Culture | 97.5% ▲ 10 7d: ▲ 59 |
| Will Tadej Pogacar win the 2026 Tour de France? Tadej Pogacar · settles in 6 days | Everything Else | 96.5% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 3 days | Everything Else | 99.4% — |
| Top US Netflix Movie on Jul 20, 2026? Shipwrecked: Nightmare at Sea · settles tomorrow | Culture | 96.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 24 |
| Will Adrian Andreev win the Andreev vs Clerc: M15 Segrate Round of 16 match? Adrian Andreev · settles today | Tennis | 97.5% — |
| Will Louis Wessels win the Pohjola vs Wessels: Qualification Final match? Louis Wessels · settles today | Tennis | 97.5% — |
| Will the gold close price be above 3948 USD/t.oz on July 20, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? above $3948 · settles today | Commodities | 96.0% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 83 USD/Bbl on July 20, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? above $83 · settles today | Commodities | 97.5% — 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7424.9999 on Jul 20, 2026 at 10am EDT? 7,425 or above · settles today | Markets | 93.0% — |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7354.9999 on Jul 20, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,355 or above · settles today | Markets | 97.0% — |