Today’s Number
How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026?
Market-consensus odds put Above 14 at 18% this morning. · ▼ 64 points overnight · on unusually heavy volume
Edition of July 25, 2026
Edition of July 25, 2026 · built from 7,966 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
18%
What Moved
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Top Coding AI this month? Surging ChatGPT | Everything Else | 3% ▼ 86 7d: ▼ 66 |
| Will SET IN STONE by Rick Ross have above 20000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026 tracking week? Surging Above 20K | Culture | 96% ▲ 89 7d: ▲ 71 |
| How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026? Surging Above 14 | Everything Else | 18% ▼ 64 7d: ▼ 75 |
| How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have in Jul 2026? Surging Above 14 | Everything Else | 14% ▼ 68 7d: ▼ 82 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.110? Above 4.110 | Everything Else | 86% ▲ 51 7d: ▲ 51 |
| 3M Open: Will Chandler Phillips finish top 20? Surging Chandler Phillips | Golf | 74% ▲ 45 7d: ▲ 63 |
| Will Daughter From Hell by Gracie Abrams have above 121000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026 tracking week? Above 121K | Culture | 98% ▲ 51 7d: ▲ 51 |
| What will Rachel Maddow say during next Rachel Maddow Show? Surging Iran (3 + times) | Everything Else | 62% ▲ 47 7d: ▼ 12 |
| What will Clear Secure Inc. say during their next earnings call? World Cup | Everything Else | 86% ▲ 50 7d: ▲ 50 |
| What will eBay say during their next earnings call? Dividend | Everything Else | 48% ▼ 48 7d: ▼ 48 |
Up in the Air
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Yes · settles in 6 days | Culture | 51% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Lucas Herbert win the LIV Golf United Kingdom? Lucas Herbert · settles today | Everything Else | 61% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 57 |
| Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election? Troy Jackson · settles in 101 days | Politics | 62% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes · settles in 99 days | MLB | 34% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? Darline Graham · settles in 17 days | Politics | 68% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 15 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 159 days | Everything Else | 28% — |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 4 days | Economy | 73% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 21 |
| How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? 0 · settles in 4 days | Economy | 26% — 7d: ▼ 8 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 4 days | Economy | 25% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 21 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 86.99 USD/Bbl on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $86.99 · settles in 6 days | Commodities | 76% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 20 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 836 days | Politics | 20% — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 836 days | Everything Else | 20% — |
| Will Dee Valladares win Big Brother Season 28? Dee Valladares · settles in 159 days | Everything Else | 16% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 836 days | Politics | 13% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the 3M Open? Scottie Scheffler · settles today | Golf | 12% ▼ 20 7d: ▼ 12 |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 134 days | Sports | 88% — 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will Philadelphia win the 2027 Pro Basketball Finals? Philadelphia · settles in 371 days | NBA | 12% — 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will Ariana Grande be #1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in July 2026? Ariana Grande · settles in 7 days | Culture | 89% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Pinocchio Unstrung Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 80 · settles in 2 days | Culture | 10% ▼ 17 7d: ▲ 2 |
Basically Decided
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Forecast | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes · settles in 6 days | Everything Else | 99.2% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Tadej Pogacar win the 2026 Tour de France? Tadej Pogacar · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 98.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Top US Netflix Show on Jul 27, 2026? The Hawk: Season 1 · settles in 3 days | Culture | 97.5% — 7d: ▲ 35 |
| Pinocchio Unstrung Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 65 · settles in 2 days | Culture | 96.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 62 |
| Hamzah Sheeraz vs Simon Zachenhuber Winner? Hamzah Sheeraz · settles today | Boxing | 95.5% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Whai vs Nelson Giants: Whai wins Whai · settles today | Sports | 98.0% ▲ 37 7d: ▲ 37 |
| Will the copper close price be above 5.39 USD/Lbs on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $5.39 · settles in 6 days | Commodities | 96.5% — |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 74.99 USD/Bbl on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $74.99 · settles in 6 days | Commodities | 97.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.39% on Jul 31, 2026? 4.4% or above · settles in 6 days | Economy | 94.0% — 7d: ▲ 21 |
| Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.19% on Jul 31, 2026? 4.2% or above · settles in 6 days | Economy | 95.5% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 58 |