Edition of July 28, 2026 · built from 7,558 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Above $6.00 at 60% this morning. · ▲ 28 points overnight · settles in 126 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Music, Fashion, Film by Charli xcx have above 70000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 24, 2026 - July 30, 2026 tracking week? Above 70K | Culture | 61% ▲ 42 7d: ▲ 18 |
| Will it rain in Phoenix on Jul 28, 2026? Phoenix | Everything Else | 59% ▲ 45 7d: ▲ 45 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.08? Above 4.08 | Everything Else | 42% ▼ 35 7d: ▼ 52 |
| Will the number of U.S. states that formally adopt a binding state-level moratorium on data-center development be at least 3 in 2026? At least 3 | Everything Else | 55% ▲ 36 7d: ▲ 33 |
| Will Thomas Tuchel be out before Jul 10, 2028? Out before Jul 10, 2028 | Everything Else | 44% ▼ 41 7d: ▼ 31 |
| Rain in Chicago in Jul 2026? Surging Above 7 inches | Everything Else | 10% ▼ 31 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Rain in Miami in Jul 2026? Surging Above 5 inches | Everything Else | 40% ▲ 28 7d: ▲ 32 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July? Yes | Everything Else | 94% ▲ 19 7d: ▲ 71 |
| What will PayPal Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call? Surging E-Commerce | Everything Else | 58% ▲ 26 7d: ▲ 3 |
| What will McDonald's Corporation say during their next earnings call? Loyalty | Everything Else | 42% ▼ 42 7d: ▼ 42 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will KT Rolster win the KT Rolster vs. DRX League of Legends match? KT Rolster | Sports | in 3 hours | 51% ▼ 19 7d: ▼ 19 |
| Chelsea wins by more than 2.5 goals? Chelsea wins by more than 2.5 goals | Everything Else | in 5 hours | 44% ▼ 5 7d: ▼ 5 |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | in 7 hours | 47% ▲ 36 7d: ▲ 36 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes | Economy | later today | 74% — 7d: ▼ 14 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes | Economy | later today | 26% — 7d: ▲ 14 |
| Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be >0 for Jul 2026? Rate: No change, Dissents: >0 | Economy | tomorrow | 60% ▼ 5 |
| How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? 0 | Economy | tomorrow | 24% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 10 |
| West Indies vs Pakistan match: Pakistan wins Pakistan | Sports | in 2 days | 66% — 7d: ▲ 9 |
| New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Yes | Culture | in 3 days | 50% — |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.08? Above 4.08 | Everything Else | in 3 days | 42% ▼ 35 7d: ▼ 52 |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 40.8 and 41.0 according to RealClearPolitics? 40.8 to 41.0 | Politics | in 3 days | 34% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July? Yes | Everything Else | in 4 days | 20% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 12 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Yes · settles in 3 days | Culture | 50% — |
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 92 · settles in 6 days | Culture | 38% ▼ 17 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election? Troy Jackson · settles in 98 days | Politics | 62% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 2 |
| West Indies vs Pakistan match: Pakistan wins Pakistan · settles in 2 days | Sports | 66% — 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? Darline Graham · settles in 14 days | Politics | 72% — 7d: ▼ 9 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes · settles today | Economy | 26% — 7d: ▲ 14 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes · settles today | Economy | 74% — 7d: ▼ 14 |
| Will Choosin' Texas be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Aug 8, 2026 Choosin' Texas · settles in 15 days | Culture | 76% ▲ 2 7d: ▼ 12 |
| How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? 0 · settles tomorrow | Economy | 24% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 10 |
| Will Philadelphia win the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Finals in the 2026-27 season? Philadelphia · settles in 337 days | NBA | 22% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 156 days | Everything Else | 22% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 6 |
| Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 338 days | NBA | 22% — 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will Cruz Azul win the Liga MX Clausura? Cruz Azul · settles in 309 days | Everything Else | 21% — |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 833 days | Politics | 20% — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 833 days | Everything Else | 19% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Dee Valladares win Big Brother Season 28? Dee Valladares · settles in 156 days | Everything Else | 18% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be 0 for Jul 2026? Rate: No change, Dissents: 0 · settles tomorrow | Economy | 18% — 7d: ▼ 15 |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 131 days | Sports | 84% — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 833 days | Politics | 12% — 7d: ▼ 2 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Forecast | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes · settles in 3 days | Everything Else | 99.4% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July? Yes · settles in 4 days | Everything Else | 94.0% ▲ 19 7d: ▲ 71 |
| Will Ariana Grande be #1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in July 2026? Ariana Grande · settles in 4 days | Culture | 93.0% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29? Yes · settles tomorrow | Politics | 98.0% — |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30? Yes · settles in 3 days | Politics | 97.4% — |
| Will Radu David Turcanu win the Turcanu vs Bosio: M25 Pitesti Round of 32 match? Radu David Turcanu · settles today | Tennis | 93.5% — |
| Will Laura Samson win the Samson vs Breaz: Round Of 32 match? Laura Samson · settles today | Tennis | 94.5% — |
| Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.20% on Jul 28, 2026? 4.21% or above · settles today | Economy | 94.5% — |
| Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.55% on Jul 28, 2026? 4.56% or above · settles today | Economy | 94.5% — |
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 83 · settles in 6 days | Culture | 94.5% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 4 |