Edition of September 26, 2026 · built from 4,278 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Before Oct 1, 2026 at 57% this morning. · ▲ 49 points overnight · settles in 97 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI release a personal AI agent before Oct 1, 2026? Surging Before Oct 1, 2026 | Everything Else | 57% ▲ 49 7d: ▲ 42 |
| Will there be more than 275 transit calls through the Panama Canal from Sep 28, 2026 to Oct 4, 2026? Above 275 | Everything Else | 2% ▼ 46 7d: ▼ 46 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.4960? Above 4.4960 | Everything Else | 2% ▼ 33 7d: ▼ 33 |
| United States wins by 6+ Points United States wins by 6+ Points | Politics | 6% ▼ 30 7d: ▼ 26 |
| Guido Migliozzi finishes top 5 Guido Migliozzi | Everything Else | 44% ▲ 38 7d: ▲ 36 |
| Will it rain in Washington DC on Sep 26, 2026? Washington DC | News | 92% ▲ 31 7d: ▲ 31 |
| Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 1, 2026 be above 7.13%? Above 7.13% | Everything Else | 96% ▲ 36 7d: ▲ 36 |
| Will the maximum temperature be >74° in Washington, D.C. on Sep 26, 2026? 75° or above | News | 2% ▼ 33 |
| Will Maura Higgins qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale? Maura Higgins | Everything Else | 84% ▲ 34 7d: ▲ 34 |
| Cameron Young: 2 Points Earned 2+ Points | Politics | 27% ▼ 32 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maria Golovina wins Maria Golovina | Tennis | in 3 hours | 33% — |
| Global Esports wins Global Esports | Everything Else | in 4 hours | 46% ▲ 1 |
| Marie Mettraux wins Marie Mettraux | Tennis | in 5 hours | 24% — |
| Justin Thomas / Jackson Koivun to win Justin Thomas / Jackson Koivun | Politics | in 11 hours | 26% — |
| Chris Gotterup / Cameron Young to win Chris Gotterup / Cameron Young | Politics | in 12 hours | 56% — |
| Colombia wins Colombia | Everything Else | later today | 36% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 93.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 28, 2026? Above $93.99 | Commodities | in 2 days | 55% ▲ 25 7d: ▲ 25 |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7739.9999 on Sep 28, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,740 or above | Markets | in 2 days | 53% — |
| Will Unabomber be Top US Netflix Movie on Sep 28, 2026? Unabomber | Culture | in 3 days | 72% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 8 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? Yes | Politics | in 5 days | 90% ▲ 14 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Trump renames AI by September 30? Yes | Everything Else | in 5 days | 18% ▼ 14 7d: ▼ 14 |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | in 5 days | 15% ▲ 8 7d: ▼ 10 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7739.9999 on Sep 28, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,740 or above · settles in 2 days | Markets | 53% — |
| Global Esports wins Global Esports · settles today | Everything Else | 46% ▲ 1 |
| Chris Gotterup / Cameron Young to win Chris Gotterup / Cameron Young · settles today | Politics | 56% — |
| Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? Yes · settles in 247 days | Premier League | 58% — 7d: ▲ 13 |
| Anna Bondar wins Anna Bondar · | Tennis | 34% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 92.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 28, 2026? Above $92.99 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 67% ▲ 25 7d: ▲ 25 |
| Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? Yes · settles in 187 days | Culture | 72% ▼ 6 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Justin Thomas / Jackson Koivun to win Justin Thomas / Jackson Koivun · settles today | Politics | 26% — |
| KT Wiz wins KT Wiz · settles today | Everything Else | 25% — |
| Marie Mettraux wins Marie Mettraux · settles today | Tennis | 24% — |
| Will Taylor Swift have the top 4 songs on the Billboard 100 for the week of October 10, 2026? Exactly Yes · settles in 14 days | Culture | 22% ▼ 18 7d: ▼ 48 |
| Will The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore by Taylor Swift have above 300000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 25, 2026 - October 01, 2026 tracking week? Above 300K · settles in 8 days | Culture | 21% ▼ 13 7d: ▼ 29 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 773 days | Politics | 21% — |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 97 days | Everything Else | 16% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 774 days | Everything Else | 15% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 848 days | Politics | 13% — |
| Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes · settles in 187 days | NFL | 12% — |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026? Yes · settles in 5 days | Everything Else | 97.4% — 7d: ▲ 11 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.4760? Above 4.4760 · settles in 2 days | Everything Else | 95.5% — |
| Alena Kovackova wins Alena Kovackova · settles today | Tennis | 95.5% — |
| Lois Boisson wins Lois Boisson · settles today | Tennis | 95.5% — |
| Will it rain in Minneapolis on Sep 26, 2026? Minneapolis · settles tomorrow | News | 94.0% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Heart of the Beast Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 84 · settles in 2 days | Culture | 97.5% — |
| Primetime Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 84 · settles in 2 days | Culture | 97.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 87.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 28, 2026? Above $87.99 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 97.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 88.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 28, 2026? Above $88.49 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 95.0% — |
| Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.90% on Sep 28, 2026? 4.91% or above · settles in 2 days | Economy | 97.5% — |