Cup Series: Kyle Larson is awarded pole position — what are the odds?

As of October 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 18%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Cup Series: Kyle Larson is awarded pole position — have the odds gone up or down?

Down. Over the 5 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 20% on October 7, 2026 to 18% on October 12, 2026 — a change of 2 points.

Cup Series: Kyle Larson is awarded pole position — what are the highest and lowest odds?

Over 5 tracked days the odds ranged between 14% and 30%. The current reading of 18% sits inside that range.

Cup Series: Kyle Larson is awarded pole position?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Cup Series: Kyle Larson is awarded pole position?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

NASCAR · tracked since October 7, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET

18%

Today’s odds

As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 18%.

▼ 12 since the previous update. ▼ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Oct 11	Today	Move
Kyle Larson	30%	18%	▼ 12

Full history table

Date	Kyle Larson
2026-10-12	18%
2026-10-11	30%
2026-10-09	14%
2026-10-08	20%
2026-10-07	20%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Cup Series: Kyle Larson is awarded pole position — what are the odds?: As of October 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 18%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Cup Series: Kyle Larson is awarded pole position — have the odds gone up or down?: Down. Over the 5 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 20% on October 7, 2026 to 18% on October 12, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
Cup Series: Kyle Larson is awarded pole position — what are the highest and lowest odds?: Over 5 tracked days the odds ranged between 14% and 30%. The current reading of 18% sits inside that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Cup Series: Kyle Larson is awarded pole position” for 5 days, since October 7, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 18%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 20% to 18%, ranging between 14% and 30% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.