Final tracked odds
As of September 30, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 24%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 30, 2026
24%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 28 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 24% | 24% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 24% |
| 2026-09-28 | 24% |
| 2026-09-27 | 24% |
| 2026-09-20 | 24% |
| 2026-09-19 | 22% |
| 2026-09-18 | 24% |
| 2026-09-16 | 18% |
| 2026-09-15 | 15% |
| 2026-09-14 | 14% |
| 2026-09-13 | 13% |
| 2026-09-12 | 16% |
| 2026-09-11 | 18% |
| 2026-09-10 | 18% |
| 2026-09-09 | 18% |
| 2026-09-08 | 18% |
| 2026-09-07 | 18% |
| 2026-09-06 | 18% |
| 2026-09-05 | 18% |
| 2026-09-04 | 18% |
| 2026-09-03 | 16% |
| 2026-09-02 | 14% |
| 2026-09-01 | 14% |
| 2026-08-31 | 15% |
| 2026-08-30 | 16% |
| 2026-08-29 | 16% |
| 2026-08-28 | 15% |
| 2026-08-27 | 16% |
| 2026-08-26 | 16% |
| 2026-08-25 | 16% |
| 2026-08-24 | 16% |
| 2026-08-23 | 14% |
| 2026-08-22 | 14% |
| 2026-08-21 | 18% |
| 2026-08-20 | 14% |
| 2026-08-19 | 14% |
| 2026-08-18 | 14% |
| 2026-08-17 | 13% |
| 2026-08-16 | 13% |
| 2026-08-15 | 13% |
| 2026-08-14 | 12% |
| 2026-08-13 | 14% |
| 2026-08-12 | 14% |
| 2026-08-11 | 16% |
| 2026-08-10 | 16% |
| 2026-08-09 | 18% |
| 2026-08-08 | 18% |
| 2026-08-07 | 19% |
| 2026-08-06 | 20% |
| 2026-08-05 | 20% |
| 2026-08-04 | 20% |
| 2026-08-03 | 23% |
| 2026-08-02 | 23% |
| 2026-08-01 | 22% |
| 2026-07-31 | 20% |
| 2026-07-30 | 18% |
| 2026-07-29 | 22% |
| 2026-07-28 | 26% |
| 2026-07-27 | 26% |
| 2026-07-26 | 26% |
| 2026-07-25 | 26% |
| 2026-07-24 | 29% |
| 2026-07-23 | 26% |
| 2026-07-22 | 26% |
| 2026-07-21 | 29% |
| 2026-07-20 | 27% |
| 2026-07-19 | 24% |
| 2026-07-18 | 24% |
| 2026-07-17 | 21% |
| 2026-07-16 | 20% |
| 2026-07-15 | 20% |
| 2026-07-14 | 24% |
| 2026-07-13 | 24% |
| 2026-07-12 | 26% |
| 2026-07-11 | 26% |
| 2026-07-10 | 28% |
| 2026-07-09 | 29% |
| 2026-07-08 | 28% |
| 2026-07-07 | 32% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 30, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 24%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 78 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 32% on July 7, 2026 to 24% on September 30, 2026 — a change of 8 points.
- Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 78 tracked days the odds ranged between 12% and 32%. The final reading of 24% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch” for 78 days, since July 7, 2026. As of September 30, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 24%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 32% to 24%, ranging between 12% and 32% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 30, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.