Today’s odds
As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 12%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?
Everything Else · tracked since August 1, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
12%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 11 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 11% | 12% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 12% |
| 2026-10-11 | 11% |
| 2026-10-10 | 11% |
| 2026-10-09 | 11% |
| 2026-10-08 | 12% |
| 2026-10-07 | 11% |
| 2026-10-06 | 11% |
| 2026-10-05 | 11% |
| 2026-10-03 | 10% |
| 2026-10-02 | 10% |
| 2026-10-01 | 10% |
| 2026-08-05 | 8% |
| 2026-08-01 | 10% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch — what are the odds?
- As of October 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 12%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 13 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 10% on August 1, 2026 to 12% on October 12, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch” for 13 days, since August 1, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 12%. The chance for a yes has risen from 10% to 12%, ranging between 8% and 12% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.