How many launches will SpaceX have in Sep 2026 — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, September 22, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 76%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

How many launches will SpaceX have in Sep 2026 — did the odds go up or down?

Down. Over the 6 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 94% on September 17, 2026 to 76% on September 22, 2026 — a change of 18 points.

How many launches will SpaceX have in Sep 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 6 tracked days the odds ranged between 76% and 95%. The final reading of 76% sits at the bottom of that range.

How many launches will SpaceX have in Sep 2026?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: How many launches will SpaceX have in Sep 2026?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since August 28, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 22, 2026

76%

Final tracked odds

As of September 22, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 76%.

▼ 16 since the previous update. ▼ 18 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 73% on September 22, 2026. Above 7 won.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Sep 21	Today	Move
Above 7	92%	76%	▼ 16

Full history table

Date	Above 7
2026-09-22	76%
2026-09-21	92%
2026-09-20	95%
2026-09-19	88%
2026-09-18	88%
2026-09-17	94%
2026-09-07	—
2026-09-06	—
2026-09-05	—
2026-09-04	—
2026-09-03	—
2026-09-02	—
2026-09-01	—
2026-08-31	—
2026-08-30	—
2026-08-29	—
2026-08-28	—

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

How many launches will SpaceX have in Sep 2026 — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, September 22, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 76%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
How many launches will SpaceX have in Sep 2026 — did the odds go up or down?: Down. Over the 6 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 94% on September 17, 2026 to 76% on September 22, 2026 — a change of 18 points.
How many launches will SpaceX have in Sep 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 6 tracked days the odds ranged between 76% and 95%. The final reading of 76% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “How many launches will SpaceX have in Sep 2026” for 6 days, since August 28, 2026. As of September 22, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 76%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 94% to 76%, ranging between 76% and 95% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 22, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.