Today’s odds
As of August 29, 2026, market-consensus odds make Above 11 the most likely outcome at 48%.
▼ 17 since the previous update. ▼ 17 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
How many launches will SpaceX have in Sep 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since August 28, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
48%
How the odds have moved
Above 11Above 10Above 12Above 14Above 15
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 28 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 11 | 64% | 48% | ▼ 17 |
| Above 10 | — | 46% | — |
| Above 12 | 32% | 25% | ▼ 8 |
| Above 14 | — | 8% | — |
| Above 15 | — | 4% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Above 11 | Above 10 | Above 12 | Above 14 | Above 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | 48% | 46% | 25% | 8% | 4% |
| 2026-08-28 | 64% | — | 32% | — | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- How many launches will SpaceX have in Sep 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of August 29, 2026, Above 11 leads at 48%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- How many launches will SpaceX have in Sep 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 2 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 64% on August 28, 2026 to 48% on August 29, 2026 — a change of 16 points.
- How many launches will SpaceX have in Sep 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 2 tracked days the odds ranged between 48% and 64%. The current reading of 48% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “How many launches will SpaceX have in Sep 2026” for 2 days, since August 28, 2026. As of August 29, 2026, Above 11 leads the field at 48%. The chance for Above 11 has fallen from 64% to 48%, ranging between 48% and 64% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.