Final tracked odds
As of September 8, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 1.2%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?
Everything Else · tracked since August 10, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 8, 2026
1.2%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 7 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.2% | 1.2% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | 1.2% |
| 2026-09-07 | 1.2% |
| 2026-09-06 | 2% |
| 2026-09-05 | 2% |
| 2026-09-04 | 2% |
| 2026-09-03 | 2% |
| 2026-09-02 | 2% |
| 2026-08-11 | 4% |
| 2026-08-10 | 4% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 8, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 1.2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 9 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 4% on August 10, 2026 to 1.2% on September 8, 2026 — a change of 3 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30” for 9 days, since August 10, 2026. As of September 8, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 1.2%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 4% to 1.2%, ranging between 1.2% and 4% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 8, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.