Final tracked odds
As of September 28, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 16%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Manchin Senate combo: Rogers loses, Collins wins?
Politics · tracked since September 16, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 28, 2026
16%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 22 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rogers loses, Collins wins | 16% | 16% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Rogers loses, Collins wins |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | 16% |
| 2026-09-22 | 16% |
| 2026-09-21 | 16% |
| 2026-09-17 | 13% |
| 2026-09-16 | 10% |
| 2026-09-15 * | 16% |
* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Manchin Senate combo: Rogers loses, Collins wins — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 28, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 16%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Manchin Senate combo: Rogers loses, Collins wins — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 5 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 10% on September 16, 2026 to 16% on September 28, 2026 — a change of 6 points.
- Manchin Senate combo: Rogers loses, Collins wins — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 5 tracked days the odds ranged between 10% and 16%. The final reading of 16% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Manchin Senate combo: Rogers loses, Collins wins” for 5 days, since September 16, 2026. As of September 28, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 16%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 10% to 16%, ranging between 10% and 16% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 28, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.