Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends — what are the odds?

As of July 29, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 30%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends — have the odds gone up or down?

Down. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 38% on July 26, 2026 to 30% on July 29, 2026 — a change of 8 points.

Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends — what are the highest and lowest odds?

Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 30% and 38%. The current reading of 30% sits inside that range.

Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Politics · tracked since July 26, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET

30%

Today’s odds

As of July 29, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 30%.

Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 7 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Jul 28	Today	Move
Yes	30%	30%	—

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-07-29	30%
2026-07-28	30%
2026-07-27	30%
2026-07-26	38%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends — what are the odds?: As of July 29, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 30%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends — have the odds gone up or down?: Down. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 38% on July 26, 2026 to 30% on July 29, 2026 — a change of 8 points.
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends — what are the highest and lowest odds?: Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 30% and 38%. The current reading of 30% sits inside that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends” for 4 days, since July 26, 2026. As of July 29, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 30%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 38% to 30%, ranging between 30% and 38% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.