Final tracked odds
As of September 28, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 10%.
▼ 4 since the previous update. ▼ 5 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Manchin Senate combo: Rogers wins, Collins loses?
Politics · tracked since September 16, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 28, 2026
10%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 22 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rogers wins, Collins loses | 14% | 10% | ▼ 4 |
Full history table
| Date | Rogers wins, Collins loses |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | 10% |
| 2026-09-22 | 14% |
| 2026-09-21 | 15% |
| 2026-09-17 | 12% |
| 2026-09-16 | 10% |
| 2026-09-15 * | 20% |
* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Manchin Senate combo: Rogers wins, Collins loses — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 28, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 10%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Manchin Senate combo: Rogers wins, Collins loses — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 5 tracked days the odds held near 10%, ending at 10% on September 28, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Manchin Senate combo: Rogers wins, Collins loses” for 5 days, since September 16, 2026. As of September 28, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 10%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 10%, ranging between 10% and 15% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 28, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.