Final tracked odds
As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 38%.
▼ 2 since the previous update. ▼ 5 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?
Everything Else · tracked since August 1, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 5, 2026
38%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 4 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 40% | 38% | ▼ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 38% |
| 2026-10-04 | 40% |
| 2026-10-03 | 40% |
| 2026-10-02 | 44% |
| 2026-10-01 | 44% |
| 2026-09-30 | 44% |
| 2026-09-29 | 44% |
| 2026-09-28 | 44% |
| 2026-09-26 | 44% |
| 2026-09-25 | 39% |
| 2026-09-24 | 39% |
| 2026-09-23 | 36% |
| 2026-09-22 | 34% |
| 2026-09-21 | 32% |
| 2026-09-09 | 32% |
| 2026-09-01 | 36% |
| 2026-08-11 | 35% |
| 2026-08-10 | 34% |
| 2026-08-09 | 34% |
| 2026-08-08 | 34% |
| 2026-08-07 | 34% |
| 2026-08-06 | 34% |
| 2026-08-05 | 34% |
| 2026-08-04 | 34% |
| 2026-08-03 | 36% |
| 2026-08-02 | 38% |
| 2026-08-01 | 34% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 5, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 38%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 27 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 34% on August 1, 2026 to 38% on October 5, 2026 — a change of 4 points.
- Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 27 tracked days the odds ranged between 32% and 44%. The final reading of 38% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch” for 27 days, since August 1, 2026. As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 38%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 34% to 38%, ranging between 32% and 44% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 5, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.