Final tracked odds
As of October 10, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 24%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since October 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 10, 2026
24%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 9 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 24% | 24% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | 24% |
| 2026-10-09 | 24% |
| 2026-10-08 | 29% |
| 2026-10-07 | 26% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 10, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 24%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 26% on October 7, 2026 to 24% on October 10, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
- Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 24% and 29%. The final reading of 24% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026” for 4 days, since October 7, 2026. As of October 10, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 24%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 26% to 24%, ranging between 24% and 29% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 10, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.