Final tracked odds
As of July 28, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 98%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 73 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Top Coding AI this month?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 28, 2026
98%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 27 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude | 98% | 98% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Claude |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | 98% |
| 2026-07-27 | 98% |
| 2026-07-26 | 96% |
| 2026-07-25 | 96% |
| 2026-07-24 | 12% |
| 2026-07-23 | 28% |
| 2026-07-21 | 24% |
| 2026-07-20 | 25% |
| 2026-07-19 | 24% |
| 2026-07-18 | 28% |
| 2026-07-17 | 21% |
| 2026-07-16 | 22% |
| 2026-07-15 | 20% |
| 2026-07-14 | 19% |
| 2026-07-13 | 14% |
| 2026-07-12 | 17% |
| 2026-07-11 | 10% |
| 2026-07-10 | 8% |
| 2026-07-09 | 42% |
| 2026-07-08 | 46% |
| 2026-07-07 | 49% |
| 2026-07-06 * | 72% |
| 2026-07-05 * | 66% |
| 2026-07-04 * | 79% |
| 2026-07-03 * | 57% |
| 2026-07-02 * | 33% |
* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Top Coding AI this month — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, July 28, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 98%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Top Coding AI this month — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 21 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 49% on July 7, 2026 to 98% on July 28, 2026 — a change of 49 points.
- Top Coding AI this month — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 21 tracked days the odds ranged between 8% and 98%. The final reading of 98% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Top Coding AI this month” for 21 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 28, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 98%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 49% to 98%, ranging between 8% and 98% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on July 28, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.