The Morning Line

Who will win the 2026 American League Championship Series?

Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET

2%

Today’s odds

As of July 29, 2026, this is wide open — no outcome clears 10% in market-consensus odds; Baltimore Orioles leads at 2%.

Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Baltimore OriolesKansas City RoyalsLos Angeles Angels
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 7Jul 13Jul 18Jul 23Jul 29Baltimore Orioles — Jul 13: 2%Baltimore Orioles — Jul 15: 2%Baltimore Orioles — Jul 20: 2%Baltimore Orioles — Jul 21: 2%Baltimore Orioles — Jul 22: 2%Baltimore Orioles — Jul 23: 2%Baltimore Orioles — Jul 24: 2%Baltimore Orioles — Jul 27: 2%Baltimore Orioles — Jul 29: 2%2%Kansas City Royals — Jul 7: 0.4%Kansas City Royals — Jul 8: 0.4%Kansas City Royals — Jul 12: 0.4%Kansas City Royals — Jul 13: 0.4%Kansas City Royals — Jul 20: 0.1%Kansas City Royals — Jul 21: 0.1%Kansas City Royals — Jul 22: 0.1%Kansas City Royals — Jul 23: 0.1%Kansas City Royals — Jul 24: 0.1%Kansas City Royals — Jul 25: 0.1%Kansas City Royals — Jul 27: 0.1%Kansas City Royals — Jul 28: 0.2%Kansas City Royals — Jul 29: 0.2%Los Angeles Angels — Jul 7: 0.3%Los Angeles Angels — Jul 8: 0.3%Los Angeles Angels — Jul 9: 0.3%Los Angeles Angels — Jul 10: 0.3%Los Angeles Angels — Jul 11: 0.3%Los Angeles Angels — Jul 13: 0.3%Los Angeles Angels — Jul 14: 0.2%Los Angeles Angels — Jul 15: 0.2%Los Angeles Angels — Jul 16: 0.2%Los Angeles Angels — Jul 17: 0.2%Los Angeles Angels — Jul 18: 0.2%Los Angeles Angels — Jul 19: 0.2%Los Angeles Angels — Jul 21: 0.2%Los Angeles Angels — Jul 22: 0.2%Los Angeles Angels — Jul 23: 0.2%Los Angeles Angels — Jul 24: 0.1%Los Angeles Angels — Jul 25: 0.1%Los Angeles Angels — Jul 26: 0.1%Los Angeles Angels — Jul 27: 0.1%Los Angeles Angels — Jul 28: 0.1%Los Angeles Angels — Jul 29: 0.1%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 28TodayMove
Baltimore Orioles—2%—
Kansas City Royals0.2%0.2%—
Los Angeles Angels0.1%0.1%—
Full history table
DateBaltimore OriolesKansas City RoyalsLos Angeles Angels
2026-07-292%0.2%0.1%
2026-07-28—0.2%0.1%
2026-07-272%0.1%0.1%
2026-07-26——0.1%
2026-07-25—0.1%0.1%
2026-07-242%0.1%0.1%
2026-07-232%0.1%0.2%
2026-07-222%0.1%0.2%
2026-07-212%0.1%0.2%
2026-07-202%0.1%—
2026-07-19——0.2%
2026-07-18——0.2%
2026-07-17——0.2%
2026-07-16——0.2%
2026-07-152%—0.2%
2026-07-14——0.2%
2026-07-132%0.4%0.3%
2026-07-12—0.4%—
2026-07-11——0.3%
2026-07-10——0.3%
2026-07-09——0.3%
2026-07-08—0.4%0.3%
2026-07-07—0.4%0.3%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Who will win the 2026 American League Championship Series — what are the odds?
As of July 29, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Who will win the 2026 American League Championship Series — how much have the odds move?
Barely. Across 9 tracked days the odds held near 2%, ending at 2% on July 29, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the 2026 American League Championship Series” for 9 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 29, 2026, no outcome clears 10% — Baltimore Orioles leads at 2%. The chance for the leading outcome has held near 2% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.

More questions we track

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.