Today’s odds
As of July 29, 2026, this is wide open — no outcome clears 10% in market-consensus odds; Erling Haaland leads at 0.4%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
0.4%
How the odds have moved
Erling HaalandJude BellinghamVinícius JúniorMohamed SalahEnzo Fernandez
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 28 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | 0.4% | 0.4% | — |
| Jude Bellingham | 0.4% | 0.4% | — |
| Vinícius Júnior | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| Mohamed Salah | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| Enzo Fernandez | — | 0.1% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Erling Haaland | Jude Bellingham | Vinícius Júnior | Mohamed Salah | Enzo Fernandez |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-07-28 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-07-27 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-07-26 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-07-25 | 0.4% | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-07-24 | 0.4% | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-07-23 | 0.4% | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-07-22 | 0.4% | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-07-21 | — | — | 0.1% | — | — |
| 2026-07-20 | — | — | 0.1% | — | — |
| 2026-07-19 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-18 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-17 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-16 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-15 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-14 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-13 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-11 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-10 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-09 | 5% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-08 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-07 | 8% | — | — | — | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or — what are the odds?
- As of July 29, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 0.4%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 10 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 8% on July 7, 2026 to 0.4% on July 29, 2026 — a change of 8 points.
- Who will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 10 tracked days the odds ranged between 0.4% and 8%. The current reading of 0.4% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or” for 10 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 29, 2026, no outcome clears 10% — Erling Haaland leads at 0.4%. The chance for the leading outcome has fallen from 8% to 0.4%, ranging between 0.4% and 8% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.