Final tracked odds
As of September 16, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 68%.
▲ 4 since the previous update. ▲ 9 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 16, 2026
68%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 15 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Linke | 65% | 68% | ▲ 4 |
Full history table
| Date | Linke |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | 68% |
| 2026-09-15 | 65% |
| 2026-09-14 | — |
| 2026-09-13 | — |
| 2026-09-12 | — |
| 2026-09-11 | — |
| 2026-09-10 | — |
| 2026-08-31 | 60% |
| 2026-08-30 | 62% |
| 2026-08-29 | 60% |
| 2026-08-28 | 58% |
| 2026-08-27 | 56% |
| 2026-08-26 | 57% |
| 2026-08-25 | 57% |
| 2026-08-24 | 56% |
| 2026-08-23 | 58% |
| 2026-08-22 | 48% |
| 2026-08-21 | — |
| 2026-08-20 | — |
| 2026-08-19 | 38% |
| 2026-08-18 | — |
| 2026-08-17 | — |
| 2026-08-16 | — |
| 2026-08-15 | — |
| 2026-08-14 | — |
| 2026-08-13 | — |
| 2026-08-12 | — |
| 2026-08-11 | — |
| 2026-08-10 | — |
| 2026-08-09 | — |
| 2026-08-08 | — |
| 2026-08-07 | — |
| 2026-08-06 | 38% |
| 2026-08-05 | 38% |
| 2026-08-04 | 38% |
| 2026-08-03 | 38% |
| 2026-08-02 | 38% |
| 2026-08-01 | 38% |
| 2026-07-31 | — |
| 2026-07-30 | — |
| 2026-07-29 | — |
| 2026-07-28 | — |
| 2026-07-27 | — |
| 2026-07-26 | — |
| 2026-07-25 | — |
| 2026-07-24 | — |
| 2026-07-23 | — |
| 2026-07-22 | — |
| 2026-07-21 | — |
| 2026-07-20 | — |
| 2026-07-19 | — |
| 2026-07-18 | — |
| 2026-07-17 | — |
| 2026-07-14 | — |
| 2026-07-11 | 34% |
| 2026-07-10 | 30% |
| 2026-07-09 | 30% |
| 2026-07-08 | 28% |
| 2026-07-07 | 28% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 16, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 68%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 24 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 28% on July 7, 2026 to 68% on September 16, 2026 — a change of 40 points.
- Who will win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 24 tracked days the odds ranged between 28% and 68%. The final reading of 68% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections” for 24 days, since July 7, 2026. As of September 16, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 68%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 28% to 68%, ranging between 28% and 68% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 16, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.