Today’s odds
As of August 27, 2026, market-consensus odds make Linke the most likely outcome at 57%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 19 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
57%
How the odds have moved
LinkeGrüne
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 26 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Linke | 57% | 57% | — |
| Grüne | 3% | 3% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Linke | Grüne |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | 57% | 3% |
| 2026-08-26 | 57% | 3% |
| 2026-08-25 | 57% | 4% |
| 2026-08-24 | 56% | 4% |
| 2026-08-23 | 58% | 4% |
| 2026-08-22 | 48% | 8% |
| 2026-08-21 | — | 9% |
| 2026-08-20 | — | 10% |
| 2026-08-19 | 38% | 8% |
| 2026-08-18 | — | 8% |
| 2026-08-17 | — | 8% |
| 2026-08-16 | — | 9% |
| 2026-08-15 | — | 8% |
| 2026-08-14 | — | 8% |
| 2026-08-13 | — | 9% |
| 2026-08-12 | — | 9% |
| 2026-08-11 | — | 9% |
| 2026-08-10 | — | 8% |
| 2026-08-09 | — | 9% |
| 2026-08-08 | — | 11% |
| 2026-08-07 | — | 11% |
| 2026-08-06 | 38% | — |
| 2026-08-05 | 38% | — |
| 2026-08-04 | 38% | — |
| 2026-08-03 | 38% | — |
| 2026-08-02 | 38% | — |
| 2026-08-01 | 38% | — |
| 2026-07-31 | — | 14% |
| 2026-07-30 | — | 14% |
| 2026-07-29 | — | 14% |
| 2026-07-28 | — | 14% |
| 2026-07-27 | — | 14% |
| 2026-07-26 | — | 14% |
| 2026-07-25 | — | 14% |
| 2026-07-24 | — | 14% |
| 2026-07-23 | — | 16% |
| 2026-07-22 | — | 16% |
| 2026-07-21 | — | 15% |
| 2026-07-20 | — | 15% |
| 2026-07-19 | — | — |
| 2026-07-18 | — | — |
| 2026-07-17 | — | — |
| 2026-07-14 | — | — |
| 2026-07-11 | 34% | — |
| 2026-07-10 | 30% | — |
| 2026-07-09 | 30% | — |
| 2026-07-08 | 28% | — |
| 2026-07-07 | 28% | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections — what are the odds?
- As of August 27, 2026, Linke leads at 57%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 18 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 28% on July 7, 2026 to 57% on August 27, 2026 — a change of 29 points.
- Who will win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 18 tracked days the odds ranged between 28% and 58%. The current reading of 57% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections” for 18 days, since July 7, 2026. As of August 27, 2026, Linke leads the field at 57%. The chance for Linke has risen from 28% to 57%, ranging between 28% and 58% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.