The Morning Line

Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET

10%

Today’s odds

As of July 29, 2026, market-consensus odds make Yulia Navalnaya the most likely outcome at 10%.

Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Yulia Navalnayathe International Court of JusticeJulian AssangeRecep Tayyip ErdoğanKhaled Mashal
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 7Jul 13Jul 18Jul 23Jul 29Yulia Navalnaya — Jul 20: 10%Yulia Navalnaya — Jul 21: 10%Yulia Navalnaya — Jul 22: 10%Yulia Navalnaya — Jul 23: 10%Yulia Navalnaya — Jul 24: 10%Yulia Navalnaya — Jul 25: 10%Yulia Navalnaya — Jul 26: 10%Yulia Navalnaya — Jul 27: 10%Yulia Navalnaya — Jul 28: 10%Yulia Navalnaya — Jul 29: 10%10%the International Court of Justice — Jul 7: 2%the International Court of Justice — Jul 8: 2%the International Court of Justice — Jul 9: 2%the International Court of Justice — Jul 10: 2%the International Court of Justice — Jul 11: 2%the International Court of Justice — Jul 12: 2%the International Court of Justice — Jul 13: 2%the International Court of Justice — Jul 14: 2%the International Court of Justice — Jul 15: 2%the International Court of Justice — Jul 16: 2%the International Court of Justice — Jul 17: 2%the International Court of Justice — Jul 20: 2%the International Court of Justice — Jul 21: 2%the International Court of Justice — Jul 22: 2%the International Court of Justice — Jul 23: 2%the International Court of Justice — Jul 24: 2%the International Court of Justice — Jul 25: 2%the International Court of Justice — Jul 26: 2%the International Court of Justice — Jul 27: 2%the International Court of Justice — Jul 28: 2%the International Court of Justice — Jul 29: 2%Julian Assange — Jul 7: 1.2%Julian Assange — Jul 8: 1.2%Julian Assange — Jul 12: 1.4%Julian Assange — Jul 13: 1.4%Julian Assange — Jul 20: 2%Julian Assange — Jul 21: 1.4%Julian Assange — Jul 22: 2%Julian Assange — Jul 23: 2%Julian Assange — Jul 24: 2%Julian Assange — Jul 25: 2%Julian Assange — Jul 27: 2%Julian Assange — Jul 28: 1.2%Julian Assange — Jul 29: 2%Recep Tayyip Erdoğan — Jul 7: 1.1%Recep Tayyip Erdoğan — Jul 8: 1.1%Recep Tayyip Erdoğan — Jul 9: 1.1%Recep Tayyip Erdoğan — Jul 10: 1.1%Recep Tayyip Erdoğan — Jul 11: 1.1%Recep Tayyip Erdoğan — Jul 12: 1.1%Recep Tayyip Erdoğan — Jul 13: 1.1%Recep Tayyip Erdoğan — Jul 14: 1.1%Recep Tayyip Erdoğan — Jul 15: 1.1%Recep Tayyip Erdoğan — Jul 16: 1.0%Recep Tayyip Erdoğan — Jul 17: 0.9%Recep Tayyip Erdoğan — Jul 18: 0.9%Recep Tayyip Erdoğan — Jul 19: 0.9%Recep Tayyip Erdoğan — Jul 20: 0.9%Recep Tayyip Erdoğan — Jul 21: 0.8%Recep Tayyip Erdoğan — Jul 22: 0.8%Recep Tayyip Erdoğan — Jul 23: 0.8%Recep Tayyip Erdoğan — Jul 24: 0.8%Recep Tayyip Erdoğan — Jul 25: 0.8%Recep Tayyip Erdoğan — Jul 26: 0.8%Recep Tayyip Erdoğan — Jul 27: 0.8%Recep Tayyip Erdoğan — Jul 28: 0.9%Recep Tayyip Erdoğan — Jul 29: 0.8%Khaled Mashal — Jul 7: 0.7%Khaled Mashal — Jul 8: 0.7%Khaled Mashal — Jul 10: 0.7%Khaled Mashal — Jul 12: 0.7%Khaled Mashal — Jul 13: 0.7%Khaled Mashal — Jul 16: 0.7%Khaled Mashal — Jul 20: 0.7%Khaled Mashal — Jul 21: 0.7%Khaled Mashal — Jul 22: 0.7%Khaled Mashal — Jul 23: 0.7%Khaled Mashal — Jul 24: 0.7%Khaled Mashal — Jul 25: 0.7%Khaled Mashal — Jul 26: 0.7%Khaled Mashal — Jul 27: 0.7%Khaled Mashal — Jul 28: 0.7%Khaled Mashal — Jul 29: 0.7%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 28TodayMove
Yulia Navalnaya10%10%—
the International Court of Justice2%2%—
Julian Assange1.2%2%—
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan0.9%0.8%—
Khaled Mashal0.7%0.7%—
Vladimir Putin0.2%0.2%—
Full history table
DateYulia Navalnayathe International Court of JusticeJulian AssangeRecep Tayyip ErdoğanKhaled MashalVladimir Putin
2026-07-2910%2%2%0.8%0.7%0.2%
2026-07-2810%2%1.2%0.9%0.7%0.2%
2026-07-2710%2%2%0.8%0.7%0.2%
2026-07-2610%2%—0.8%0.7%0.2%
2026-07-2510%2%2%0.8%0.7%0.2%
2026-07-2410%2%2%0.8%0.7%0.2%
2026-07-2310%2%2%0.8%0.7%0.2%
2026-07-2210%2%2%0.8%0.7%0.2%
2026-07-2110%2%1.4%0.8%0.7%0.2%
2026-07-2010%2%2%0.9%0.7%0.2%
2026-07-19———0.9%——
2026-07-18———0.9%——
2026-07-17—2%—0.9%—0.2%
2026-07-16—2%—1.0%0.7%0.4%
2026-07-15—2%—1.1%—0.3%
2026-07-14—2%—1.1%——
2026-07-13—2%1.4%1.1%0.7%0.3%
2026-07-12—2%1.4%1.1%0.7%0.3%
2026-07-11—2%—1.1%—0.2%
2026-07-10—2%—1.1%0.7%0.2%
2026-07-09—2%—1.1%—0.2%
2026-07-08—2%1.2%1.1%0.7%0.2%
2026-07-07—2%1.2%1.1%0.7%0.4%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 — what are the odds?
As of July 29, 2026, Yulia Navalnaya leads at 10%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 — how much have the odds move?
Barely. Across 10 tracked days the odds held near 10%, ending at 10% on July 29, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026” for 10 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 29, 2026, Yulia Navalnaya leads the field at 10%. The chance for Yulia Navalnaya has held near 10% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.

More questions we track

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.