Final tracked odds
As of October 8, 2026, market-consensus odds make Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms the most likely outcome at 17%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 8, 2026
17%
How the odds have moved
Sudan's Emergency Response RoomsPope Leo XIVTamim bin Hamad Al ThaniVolodymyr ZelenskyyJulian Assange
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 7 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | — | 17% | — |
| Pope Leo XIV | 1.2% | 0.8% | ▼ 1 |
| Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | 0.8% | 0.6% | — |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 0.5% | 0.5% | — |
| Julian Assange | 0.5% | 0.2% | — |
| Vladimir Putin | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| Khaled Mashal | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | Pope Leo XIV | Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | Volodymyr Zelenskyy | Julian Assange | Vladimir Putin | Khaled Mashal | Benjamin Netanyahu |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | 17% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-07 | — | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-06 | — | 2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-10-05 | — | 2% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-10-04 | — | 1.4% | — | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-10-03 | — | 0.9% | — | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-10-02 | — | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-10-01 | — | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-09-30 | — | 1.1% | — | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-09-29 | — | 0.9% | — | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-09-28 | — | 2% | — | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-09-27 | — | — | — | — | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-09-26 | — | 2% | — | 2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-09-25 | — | 2% | — | 2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-09-24 | — | — | — | 2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-09-23 | — | 0.9% | — | 2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-09-22 | — | 1.1% | — | 3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-09-21 | — | 1.0% | — | 3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-09-20 | — | — | — | — | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-09-19 | — | — | — | — | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-09-18 | — | — | — | — | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-09-17 | — | — | — | — | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-09-16 | — | — | — | — | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-09-15 | — | — | — | — | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-09-14 | — | 0.9% | — | 2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-09-13 | — | — | — | — | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-09-12 | — | — | — | — | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-09-11 | — | — | — | 3% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-09-10 | — | — | — | — | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | — |
| 2026-09-09 | — | — | — | — | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | — |
| 2026-09-08 | — | — | — | — | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | — |
| 2026-09-07 | — | — | — | — | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | — |
| 2026-09-06 | — | — | — | — | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | — |
| 2026-09-05 | — | — | — | — | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | — |
| 2026-09-04 | — | — | — | — | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | — |
| 2026-09-03 | — | — | — | — | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | — |
| 2026-09-02 | — | — | — | — | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | — |
| 2026-09-01 | — | 3% | — | — | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | — |
| 2026-08-31 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.1% | — | — |
| 2026-08-30 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.1% | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.1% | 0.2% | — |
| 2026-08-28 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.1% | 0.2% | — |
| 2026-08-27 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.1% | 0.2% | — |
| 2026-08-26 | — | — | — | — | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | — |
| 2026-08-25 | — | — | — | — | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | — |
| 2026-08-24 | — | — | — | — | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | — |
| 2026-08-23 | — | — | — | — | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | — |
| 2026-08-22 | — | — | — | — | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | — |
| 2026-08-21 | — | — | — | — | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | — |
| 2026-08-20 | — | — | — | — | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | — |
| 2026-08-19 | — | — | — | — | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | — |
| 2026-08-18 | — | — | — | — | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | — |
| 2026-08-17 | — | 3% | — | — | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | — |
| 2026-08-16 | — | 3% | — | — | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | — |
| 2026-08-15 | — | 3% | — | — | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | — |
| 2026-08-14 | — | 3% | — | — | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | — |
| 2026-08-13 | — | 3% | — | — | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | — |
| 2026-08-12 | — | — | — | — | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | — |
| 2026-08-11 | — | 3% | — | — | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | — |
| 2026-08-10 | — | 3% | — | — | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | — |
| 2026-08-09 | — | 3% | — | — | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | — |
| 2026-08-08 | — | 3% | 3% | — | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | — |
| 2026-08-07 | — | 3% | — | — | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | — |
| 2026-08-06 | — | 3% | 3% | — | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.6% | — |
| 2026-08-05 | — | 3% | 3% | — | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.7% | — |
| 2026-08-04 | — | 3% | — | — | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | — |
| 2026-08-03 | — | 3% | — | — | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.6% | — |
| 2026-08-02 | — | 3% | 3% | — | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | — |
| 2026-08-01 | — | 4% | 3% | 7% | 2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | — |
| 2026-07-31 | — | — | — | — | 2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | — |
| 2026-07-30 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.2% | 0.7% | — |
| 2026-07-29 | — | — | — | — | 2% | 0.2% | 0.7% | — |
| 2026-07-28 | — | — | — | — | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.7% | — |
| 2026-07-27 | — | — | — | — | 2% | 0.2% | 0.7% | — |
| 2026-07-26 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.2% | 0.7% | — |
| 2026-07-25 | — | — | — | — | 2% | 0.2% | 0.7% | — |
| 2026-07-24 | — | — | — | — | 2% | 0.2% | 0.7% | — |
| 2026-07-23 | — | — | — | — | 2% | 0.2% | 0.7% | — |
| 2026-07-22 | — | — | — | — | 2% | 0.2% | 0.7% | — |
| 2026-07-21 | — | — | — | — | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.7% | — |
| 2026-07-20 | — | 4% | — | — | 2% | 0.2% | 0.7% | — |
| 2026-07-19 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-17 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.2% | — | — |
| 2026-07-16 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.4% | 0.7% | — |
| 2026-07-15 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.3% | — | — |
| 2026-07-14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-13 | — | — | — | — | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | — |
| 2026-07-12 | — | — | — | — | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | — |
| 2026-07-11 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.2% | — | — |
| 2026-07-10 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.2% | 0.7% | — |
| 2026-07-09 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.2% | — | — |
| 2026-07-08 | — | — | — | — | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.7% | — |
| 2026-07-07 | — | — | — | — | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026” for 1 day, since July 7, 2026. As of October 8, 2026, Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms leads the field at 17%. The final tracked chance for Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms has held near 17% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 8, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.