Who will win the next presidential election?

Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 26, 2026

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Who will win the next presidential election — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, July 26, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Who will win the next presidential election — how much did the odds move?

Barely. Across 12 tracked days the odds held near 2%, ending at 2% on July 26, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the next presidential election” for 12 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 26, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 2%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 2% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on July 26, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.

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