Final tracked odds
As of September 30, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 40%.
▼ 2 since the previous update. ▲ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
Politics · tracked since July 27, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 30, 2026
40%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 29 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| the Republicans | 42% | 40% | ▼ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | the Republicans |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 40% |
| 2026-09-29 | 42% |
| 2026-09-28 | 42% |
| 2026-09-27 | 42% |
| 2026-09-26 | 42% |
| 2026-09-25 | 40% |
| 2026-09-24 | 40% |
| 2026-09-23 | 36% |
| 2026-09-22 | 36% |
| 2026-09-20 | — |
| 2026-09-13 | 48% |
| 2026-09-12 | 48% |
| 2026-09-11 | 48% |
| 2026-09-09 | — |
| 2026-09-08 | — |
| 2026-09-07 | — |
| 2026-09-06 | — |
| 2026-08-31 | 46% |
| 2026-08-29 | 46% |
| 2026-08-28 | 46% |
| 2026-08-27 | 46% |
| 2026-08-26 | 46% |
| 2026-08-25 | 46% |
| 2026-08-24 | 48% |
| 2026-08-23 | 48% |
| 2026-08-22 | 48% |
| 2026-08-21 | 48% |
| 2026-08-20 | 48% |
| 2026-08-19 | 48% |
| 2026-08-18 | 46% |
| 2026-08-17 | 48% |
| 2026-08-16 | 47% |
| 2026-07-31 | — |
| 2026-07-30 | — |
| 2026-07-27 | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the Ohio Senate race in 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 30, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 40%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the Ohio Senate race in 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 27 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 47% on August 16, 2026 to 40% on September 30, 2026 — a change of 7 points.
- Who will win the Ohio Senate race in 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 27 tracked days the odds ranged between 36% and 48%. The final reading of 40% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the Ohio Senate race in 2026” for 27 days, since July 27, 2026. As of September 30, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 40%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 47% to 40%, ranging between 36% and 48% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 30, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.