Final tracked odds
As of September 20, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.1%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Politics · tracked since August 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 20, 2026
0.1%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 19 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yabloko | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yabloko |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-19 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-17 | — |
| 2026-09-16 | — |
| 2026-09-15 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-14 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-12 | — |
| 2026-09-11 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-10 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-09 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-08 | — |
| 2026-09-07 | — |
| 2026-09-06 | — |
| 2026-09-04 | — |
| 2026-08-25 | — |
| 2026-08-24 | — |
| 2026-08-23 | — |
| 2026-08-22 | — |
| 2026-08-21 | — |
| 2026-08-20 | — |
| 2026-08-19 | — |
| 2026-08-18 | — |
| 2026-08-17 | — |
| 2026-08-16 | — |
| 2026-08-15 | — |
| 2026-08-14 | — |
| 2026-08-13 | — |
| 2026-08-12 | — |
| 2026-08-11 | — |
| 2026-08-10 | — |
| 2026-08-09 | — |
| 2026-08-08 | — |
| 2026-08-07 | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 20, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.1%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 7 tracked days the odds held near 0.1%, ending at 0.1% on September 20, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election” for 7 days, since August 7, 2026. As of September 20, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.1%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 0.1% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 20, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.