Final tracked odds
As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 64%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 14 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 5, 2026
64%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 4 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| the Democrats | 64% | 64% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | the Democrats |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 64% |
| 2026-10-04 | 64% |
| 2026-10-03 | 64% |
| 2026-10-02 | 62% |
| 2026-10-01 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | — |
| 2026-09-29 | — |
| 2026-07-31 | 50% |
| 2026-07-30 | 46% |
| 2026-07-29 | 46% |
| 2026-07-28 | 44% |
| 2026-07-27 | 44% |
| 2026-07-26 | 44% |
| 2026-07-25 | 44% |
| 2026-07-24 | 44% |
| 2026-07-23 | 44% |
| 2026-07-22 | 44% |
| 2026-07-21 | 44% |
| 2026-07-20 | 44% |
| 2026-07-19 | — |
| 2026-07-18 | — |
| 2026-07-17 | — |
| 2026-07-16 | 42% |
| 2026-07-15 | 42% |
| 2026-07-14 | — |
| 2026-07-13 | 44% |
| 2026-07-12 | 44% |
| 2026-07-09 | — |
| 2026-07-07 | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the Texas Senate race in 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 5, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 64%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the Texas Senate race in 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 20 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 44% on July 12, 2026 to 64% on October 5, 2026 — a change of 20 points.
- Who will win the Texas Senate race in 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 20 tracked days the odds ranged between 42% and 64%. The final reading of 64% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the Texas Senate race in 2026” for 20 days, since July 7, 2026. As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 64%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 44% to 64%, ranging between 42% and 64% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 5, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.