Final tracked odds
As of October 27, 2026, market-consensus odds make the Republican Party the most likely outcome at 64%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 7 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the VA-05 House seat?
Politics · tracked since October 6, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 27, 2026
64%
How the odds have moved
the Republican Partythe Democratic Party
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 26 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| the Republican Party | — | 64% | — |
| the Democratic Party | 36% | 36% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | the Republican Party | the Democratic Party |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | 64% | 36% |
| 2026-10-26 | — | 36% |
| 2026-10-25 | — | 32% |
| 2026-10-24 | — | 34% |
| 2026-10-23 | — | 38% |
| 2026-10-22 | — | 38% |
| 2026-10-20 | 70% | — |
| 2026-10-19 | — | 32% |
| 2026-10-18 | — | 30% |
| 2026-10-17 | — | 30% |
| 2026-10-16 | — | 30% |
| 2026-10-14 | — | 24% |
| 2026-10-13 | — | 23% |
| 2026-10-12 | 76% | 23% |
| 2026-10-07 | — | 22% |
| 2026-10-06 | — | 22% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the VA-05 House seat — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 27, 2026, the Republican Party led at 64%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the VA-05 House seat — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 76% on October 12, 2026 to 64% on October 27, 2026 — a change of 12 points.
- Who will win the VA-05 House seat — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 3 tracked days the odds ranged between 64% and 76%. The final reading of 64% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the VA-05 House seat” for 3 days, since October 6, 2026. As of October 27, 2026, the Republican Party leads the field at 64%. The final tracked chance for the Republican Party has fallen from 76% to 64%, ranging between 64% and 76% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 27, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.