Final tracked odds
As of September 27, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 7%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 5 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
Politics · tracked since August 5, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 27, 2026
7%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 26 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | 7% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | 7% |
| 2026-09-26 | 6% |
| 2026-09-25 | 6% |
| 2026-09-24 | 5% |
| 2026-09-23 | 6% |
| 2026-09-22 | 7% |
| 2026-09-21 | 7% |
| 2026-08-25 | 12% |
| 2026-08-24 | 14% |
| 2026-08-23 | 14% |
| 2026-08-22 | 14% |
| 2026-08-21 | 14% |
| 2026-08-20 | 11% |
| 2026-08-19 | 10% |
| 2026-08-18 | 9% |
| 2026-08-17 | 12% |
| 2026-08-16 | 12% |
| 2026-08-15 | 13% |
| 2026-08-14 | 10% |
| 2026-08-13 | 10% |
| 2026-08-12 | 10% |
| 2026-08-11 | 8% |
| 2026-08-10 | 8% |
| 2026-08-09 | 8% |
| 2026-08-08 | 8% |
| 2026-08-07 | 8% |
| 2026-08-06 | 6% |
| 2026-08-05 | 8% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 27, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 7%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 28 tracked days the odds held near 8%, ending at 7% on September 27, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
- Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 28 tracked days the odds ranged between 5% and 14%. The final reading of 7% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election” for 28 days, since August 5, 2026. As of September 27, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 7%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 8%, ranging between 5% and 14% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 27, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.