Final tracked odds
As of September 30, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 34%.
▼ 2 since the previous update. ▼ 7 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Politics · tracked since August 31, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 30, 2026
34%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 29 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 36% | 34% | ▼ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 34% |
| 2026-09-29 | 36% |
| 2026-09-28 | 45% |
| 2026-09-26 | 41% |
| 2026-09-25 | 43% |
| 2026-09-24 | 38% |
| 2026-09-23 | 41% |
| 2026-09-08 | 52% |
| 2026-09-07 | 59% |
| 2026-09-06 | 56% |
| 2026-08-31 | 50% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 30, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 34%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 11 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 50% on August 31, 2026 to 34% on September 30, 2026 — a change of 16 points.
- Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 11 tracked days the odds ranged between 34% and 59%. The final reading of 34% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election” for 11 days, since August 31, 2026. As of September 30, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 34%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 50% to 34%, ranging between 34% and 59% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 30, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.