Final tracked odds
As of September 30, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 19%.
▲ 5 since the previous update. ▲ 4 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
Politics · tracked since July 20, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 30, 2026
19%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 29 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| the Republicans | 14% | 19% | ▲ 5 |
Full history table
| Date | the Republicans |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 19% |
| 2026-09-29 | 14% |
| 2026-09-28 | 14% |
| 2026-09-27 | — |
| 2026-09-26 | 14% |
| 2026-09-25 | 14% |
| 2026-09-24 | 16% |
| 2026-09-23 | 16% |
| 2026-09-22 | 16% |
| 2026-09-21 | 16% |
| 2026-09-20 | — |
| 2026-09-19 | — |
| 2026-09-18 | — |
| 2026-09-17 | — |
| 2026-09-16 | — |
| 2026-09-15 | — |
| 2026-09-14 | — |
| 2026-09-13 | — |
| 2026-09-12 | — |
| 2026-09-11 | — |
| 2026-09-10 | — |
| 2026-09-09 | 18% |
| 2026-09-08 | — |
| 2026-09-07 | — |
| 2026-09-06 | — |
| 2026-09-05 | — |
| 2026-09-04 | — |
| 2026-09-03 | — |
| 2026-09-02 | — |
| 2026-09-01 | — |
| 2026-08-12 | — |
| 2026-08-03 | 49% |
| 2026-07-21 | 42% |
| 2026-07-20 | 42% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 30, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 19%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 13 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 42% on July 20, 2026 to 19% on September 30, 2026 — a change of 23 points.
- Who will win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 13 tracked days the odds ranged between 14% and 49%. The final reading of 19% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026” for 13 days, since July 20, 2026. As of September 30, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 19%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 42% to 19%, ranging between 14% and 49% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 30, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.