Today’s odds
As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 22%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the Texas governor race in 2026?
Politics · tracked since September 18, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
22%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 8 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| the Democrats | — | 22% | — |
Full history table
| Date | the Democrats |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 22% |
| 2026-10-08 | — |
| 2026-10-06 | — |
| 2026-10-05 | — |
| 2026-09-27 | 20% |
| 2026-09-21 | 22% |
| 2026-09-18 | 22% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the Texas governor race in 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of October 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 22%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the Texas governor race in 2026” for 4 days, since September 18, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 22%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 22% to 22%, ranging between 20% and 22% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.