Final tracked odds
As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 86%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
Politics · tracked since July 24, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 5, 2026
86%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 1 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| the Republicans | — | 86% | — |
Full history table
| Date | the Republicans |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 86% |
| 2026-10-01 | — |
| 2026-09-27 | 86% |
| 2026-09-16 | — |
| 2026-09-15 | 86% |
| 2026-09-14 | 86% |
| 2026-09-13 | 86% |
| 2026-09-12 | 86% |
| 2026-09-11 | 87% |
| 2026-09-10 | 86% |
| 2026-09-09 | 86% |
| 2026-09-08 | 86% |
| 2026-09-07 | 86% |
| 2026-09-06 | 86% |
| 2026-09-05 | 86% |
| 2026-09-04 | 86% |
| 2026-09-03 | 86% |
| 2026-09-02 | 86% |
| 2026-09-01 | 86% |
| 2026-08-13 | — |
| 2026-08-12 | — |
| 2026-08-11 | — |
| 2026-08-10 | — |
| 2026-08-09 | — |
| 2026-08-07 | — |
| 2026-07-31 | — |
| 2026-07-30 | — |
| 2026-07-29 | — |
| 2026-07-28 | — |
| 2026-07-27 | — |
| 2026-07-24 | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 5, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 86%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026 — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 17 tracked days the odds held near 86%, ending at 86% on October 5, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026” for 17 days, since July 24, 2026. As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 86%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 86% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 5, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.