Final tracked odds
As of September 16, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.1%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
Politics · tracked since September 11, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 16, 2026
0.1%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 15 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| the Sweden Democrats (SD) | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
Full history table
| Date | the Sweden Democrats (SD) |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-15 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-14 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-11 | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 16, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.1%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election” for 3 days, since September 11, 2026. As of September 16, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.1%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 0.1% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 16, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.