Today’s odds
As of August 7, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 90%.
▼ 3 since the previous update. ▼ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 30, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
90%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 6 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 92% | 90% | ▼ 3 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | 90% |
| 2026-08-06 | 92% |
| 2026-07-30 | 92% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of August 7, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 90%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 92% on July 30, 2026 to 90% on August 7, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026” for 3 days, since July 30, 2026. As of August 7, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 90%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 92% to 90%, ranging between 90% and 92% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.