Final tracked odds
As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 52%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 9 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since August 5, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 4, 2026
52%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 3 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 52% | 52% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 52% |
| 2026-10-03 | 52% |
| 2026-10-02 | 55% |
| 2026-10-01 | 52% |
| 2026-09-10 | 62% |
| 2026-09-09 | 62% |
| 2026-09-08 | 64% |
| 2026-09-07 | 64% |
| 2026-09-06 | 66% |
| 2026-08-30 | 70% |
| 2026-08-15 | 66% |
| 2026-08-14 | 66% |
| 2026-08-13 | 66% |
| 2026-08-12 | 66% |
| 2026-08-11 | 66% |
| 2026-08-10 | 66% |
| 2026-08-09 | 67% |
| 2026-08-08 | 68% |
| 2026-08-07 | 68% |
| 2026-08-06 | 66% |
| 2026-08-05 | 68% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 52%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 21 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 68% on August 5, 2026 to 52% on October 4, 2026 — a change of 16 points.
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 21 tracked days the odds ranged between 52% and 70%. The final reading of 52% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026” for 21 days, since August 5, 2026. As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 52%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 68% to 52%, ranging between 52% and 70% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 4, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.