Final tracked odds
As of August 10, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 2%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before Oct 1, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 20, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 10, 2026
2%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 9 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 2% | 2% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Before Oct 1, 2026 |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | 2% |
| 2026-08-09 | 2% |
| 2026-08-08 | 2% |
| 2026-08-07 | 2% |
| 2026-08-06 | 2% |
| 2026-08-05 | 2% |
| 2026-08-04 | 2% |
| 2026-08-03 | 2% |
| 2026-08-02 | 2% |
| 2026-08-01 | 2% |
| 2026-07-31 | 2% |
| 2026-07-30 | 2% |
| 2026-07-29 | 2% |
| 2026-07-28 | 2% |
| 2026-07-27 | 2% |
| 2026-07-26 | 2% |
| 2026-07-25 | 2% |
| 2026-07-24 | 2% |
| 2026-07-23 | 2% |
| 2026-07-22 | 2% |
| 2026-07-21 | 2% |
| 2026-07-20 | 12% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before Oct 1, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 10, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before Oct 1, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 22 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 12% on July 20, 2026 to 2% on August 10, 2026 — a change of 10 points.
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before Oct 1, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 22 tracked days the odds ranged between 2% and 12%. The final reading of 2% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before Oct 1, 2026” for 22 days, since July 20, 2026. As of August 10, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 2%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 12% to 2%, ranging between 2% and 12% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 10, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.