The Morning Line

Will Darline Graham finish 1st in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?

Politics · tracked since August 3, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 11, 2026

64%

Final tracked odds

As of August 11, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 64%.

▲ 7 since the previous update. ▼ 22 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 60% on August 11, 2026. Darline Graham won.

How the odds have moved

0%25%50%75%100%Aug 3Aug 5Aug 7Aug 9Aug 11Darline Graham — Aug 3: 84%Darline Graham — Aug 4: 86%Darline Graham — Aug 5: 78%Darline Graham — Aug 6: 74%Darline Graham — Aug 7: 60%Darline Graham — Aug 8: 60%Darline Graham — Aug 9: 58%Darline Graham — Aug 10: 57%Darline Graham — Aug 11: 64%64%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeAug 10TodayMove
Darline Graham57%64%▲ 7
Full history table
DateDarline Graham
2026-08-1164%
2026-08-1057%
2026-08-0958%
2026-08-0860%
2026-08-0760%
2026-08-0674%
2026-08-0578%
2026-08-0486%
2026-08-0384%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will Darline Graham finish 1st in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary — what were the odds?
As of the last morning we tracked it, August 11, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 64%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will Darline Graham finish 1st in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary — did the odds go up or down?
Down. Over the 9 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 84% on August 3, 2026 to 64% on August 11, 2026 — a change of 20 points.
Will Darline Graham finish 1st in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary — what were the highest and lowest odds?
Over 9 tracked days the odds ranged between 57% and 86%. The final reading of 64% sits inside that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Darline Graham finish 1st in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary” for 9 days, since August 3, 2026. As of August 11, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 64%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 84% to 64%, ranging between 57% and 86% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 11, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.

Related questions

The Morning Line reports market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. The numbers are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.