Final tracked odds
As of August 25, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 3%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Democrats win more than 9 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Michigan?
Politics · tracked since August 20, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 25, 2026
3%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 24 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 9 | 4% | 3% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Above 9 |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | 3% |
| 2026-08-24 | 4% |
| 2026-08-23 | 4% |
| 2026-08-22 | 2% |
| 2026-08-21 | 2% |
| 2026-08-20 | 2% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Democrats win more than 9 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Michigan — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 25, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 3%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Democrats win more than 9 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Michigan — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 6 tracked days the odds held near 2%, ending at 3% on August 25, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Democrats win more than 9 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Michigan” for 6 days, since August 20, 2026. As of August 25, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 3%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 2% to 3%, ranging between 2% and 4% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 25, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.