Final tracked odds
As of September 23, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 70%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 6 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Politics · tracked since August 16, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 23, 2026
70%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 22 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 70% | 70% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | 70% |
| 2026-09-22 | 70% |
| 2026-09-21 | 68% |
| 2026-09-20 | 68% |
| 2026-09-19 | 74% |
| 2026-09-18 | 76% |
| 2026-09-17 | 76% |
| 2026-09-16 | 76% |
| 2026-08-25 | 88% |
| 2026-08-23 | 84% |
| 2026-08-22 | 84% |
| 2026-08-21 | 88% |
| 2026-08-20 | 88% |
| 2026-08-19 | 87% |
| 2026-08-18 | 86% |
| 2026-08-17 | 86% |
| 2026-08-16 | 85% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 23, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 70%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 17 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 85% on August 16, 2026 to 70% on September 23, 2026 — a change of 15 points.
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 17 tracked days the odds ranged between 68% and 88%. The final reading of 70% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election” for 17 days, since August 16, 2026. As of September 23, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 70%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 85% to 70%, ranging between 68% and 88% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 23, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.