Final tracked odds
As of August 25, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 88%.
▲ 3 since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Politics · tracked since August 16, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 25, 2026
88%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 23 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 84% | 88% | ▲ 3 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | 88% |
| 2026-08-23 | 84% |
| 2026-08-22 | 84% |
| 2026-08-21 | 88% |
| 2026-08-20 | 88% |
| 2026-08-19 | 87% |
| 2026-08-18 | 86% |
| 2026-08-17 | 86% |
| 2026-08-16 | 85% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 25, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 88%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 9 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 85% on August 16, 2026 to 88% on August 25, 2026 — a change of 3 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election” for 9 days, since August 16, 2026. As of August 25, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 88%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 85% to 88%, ranging between 84% and 88% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 25, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.