Today’s odds
As of August 30, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 8%.
▼ 2 since the previous update. ▲ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?
Politics · tracked since August 25, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
8%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 27 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hakeem Jeffries | 10% | 8% | ▼ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Hakeem Jeffries |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | 8% |
| 2026-08-27 | 10% |
| 2026-08-26 | 12% |
| 2026-08-25 | 6% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Hakeem Jeffries win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress — what are the odds?
- As of August 30, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 8%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Hakeem Jeffries win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 6% on August 25, 2026 to 8% on August 30, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
- Will Hakeem Jeffries win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 6% and 12%. The current reading of 8% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Hakeem Jeffries win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress” for 4 days, since August 25, 2026. As of August 30, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 8%. The chance for a yes has risen from 6% to 8%, ranging between 6% and 12% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.