Final tracked odds
As of July 24, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 98%.
▲ 16 since the previous update. ▲ 10 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will it be confirmed that Troy Jackson is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?
Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 24, 2026
98%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 18 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Jackson | 82% | 98% | ▲ 16 |
Full history table
| Date | Troy Jackson |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | 98% |
| 2026-07-18 | 82% |
| 2026-07-17 | 88% |
| 2026-07-16 | 76% |
| 2026-07-15 | 78% |
| 2026-07-14 | 74% |
| 2026-07-13 | 72% |
| 2026-07-12 | 66% |
| 2026-07-11 | 66% |
| 2026-07-10 | 48% |
| 2026-07-09 | 44% |
| 2026-07-08 | 48% |
| 2026-07-07 | 52% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will it be confirmed that Troy Jackson is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, July 24, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 98%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will it be confirmed that Troy Jackson is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 13 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 52% on July 7, 2026 to 98% on July 24, 2026 — a change of 46 points.
- Will it be confirmed that Troy Jackson is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 13 tracked days the odds ranged between 44% and 98%. The final reading of 98% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will it be confirmed that Troy Jackson is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026” for 13 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 24, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 98%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 52% to 98%, ranging between 44% and 98% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on July 24, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.