Today’s odds
As of August 27, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 96%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Green Party receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
Politics · tracked since August 26, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
96%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 26 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 3% | 94% | 96% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | At least 3% |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | 96% |
| 2026-08-26 | 94% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Green Party receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election — what are the odds?
- As of August 27, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 96%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Green Party receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 2 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 94% on August 26, 2026 to 96% on August 27, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Green Party receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election” for 2 days, since August 26, 2026. As of August 27, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 96%. The chance for a yes has risen from 94% to 96% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.