Final tracked odds
As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 12%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 4, 2026
12%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 3 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12% | 12% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 12% |
| 2026-10-03 | 12% |
| 2026-10-02 | 12% |
| 2026-10-01 | 12% |
| 2026-09-30 | 12% |
| 2026-09-29 | 12% |
| 2026-09-28 | 12% |
| 2026-09-26 | 14% |
| 2026-09-25 | 15% |
| 2026-09-24 | 16% |
| 2026-09-23 | 17% |
| 2026-09-22 | 16% |
| 2026-09-21 | 20% |
| 2026-09-19 | 22% |
| 2026-09-18 | 22% |
| 2026-09-17 | 23% |
| 2026-09-16 | 23% |
| 2026-09-15 | 22% |
| 2026-09-14 | 24% |
| 2026-09-13 | 24% |
| 2026-09-12 | 26% |
| 2026-09-11 | 26% |
| 2026-09-10 | 26% |
| 2026-09-09 | 26% |
| 2026-09-07 | 26% |
| 2026-09-06 | 26% |
| 2026-09-04 | 26% |
| 2026-09-03 | 28% |
| 2026-09-02 | 28% |
| 2026-09-01 | 30% |
| 2026-08-17 | 18% |
| 2026-08-16 | 18% |
| 2026-08-14 | 19% |
| 2026-08-13 | 19% |
| 2026-08-12 | 19% |
| 2026-08-11 | 20% |
| 2026-08-10 | 20% |
| 2026-08-09 | 20% |
| 2026-08-08 | 20% |
| 2026-08-07 | 19% |
| 2026-08-06 | 18% |
| 2026-08-05 | 18% |
| 2026-08-04 | 18% |
| 2026-08-03 | 18% |
| 2026-08-02 | 20% |
| 2026-08-01 | 20% |
| 2026-07-31 | 20% |
| 2026-07-30 | 20% |
| 2026-07-29 | 20% |
| 2026-07-28 | 20% |
| 2026-07-27 | 21% |
| 2026-07-23 | 17% |
| 2026-07-22 | 17% |
| 2026-07-21 | 16% |
| 2026-07-20 | 16% |
| 2026-07-15 | 18% |
| 2026-07-13 | 18% |
| 2026-07-12 | 16% |
| 2026-07-08 | 20% |
| 2026-07-07 | 18% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Gold have the best performance in 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 12%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Gold have the best performance in 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 60 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 18% on July 7, 2026 to 12% on October 4, 2026 — a change of 6 points.
- Will Gold have the best performance in 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 60 tracked days the odds ranged between 12% and 30%. The final reading of 12% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Gold have the best performance in 2026” for 60 days, since July 7, 2026. As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 12%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 18% to 12%, ranging between 12% and 30% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 4, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.