Final tracked odds
As of October 19, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 82%.
▲ 3 since the previous update. ▲ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Marine Le Pen finish 1st in the first round of the next French presidential election?
Politics · tracked since October 13, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 19, 2026
82%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 14 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 78% | 82% | ▲ 3 |
Full history table
| Date | Marine Le Pen |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | 82% |
| 2026-10-14 | 78% |
| 2026-10-13 | 80% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Marine Le Pen finish 1st in the first round of the next French presidential election — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 19, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 82%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Marine Le Pen finish 1st in the first round of the next French presidential election — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 80% on October 13, 2026 to 82% on October 19, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Marine Le Pen finish 1st in the first round of the next French presidential election” for 3 days, since October 13, 2026. As of October 19, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 82%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 80% to 82%, ranging between 78% and 82% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 19, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.