Final tracked odds
As of November 3, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 58%.
▼ 4 since the previous update. ▲ 20 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?
Everything Else · tracked since August 12, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on November 3, 2026
58%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 31 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 62% | 58% | ▼ 4 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | 58% |
| 2026-10-31 | 62% |
| 2026-10-30 | 62% |
| 2026-10-29 | 52% |
| 2026-10-28 | 66% |
| 2026-10-27 | 38% |
| 2026-09-30 | 36% |
| 2026-09-29 | 40% |
| 2026-09-28 | 34% |
| 2026-09-24 | 37% |
| 2026-08-31 | 34% |
| 2026-08-30 | 26% |
| 2026-08-29 | 34% |
| 2026-08-28 | 34% |
| 2026-08-27 | 34% |
| 2026-08-26 | 34% |
| 2026-08-25 | 34% |
| 2026-08-24 | 34% |
| 2026-08-23 | 34% |
| 2026-08-22 | 34% |
| 2026-08-20 | 34% |
| 2026-08-15 | 32% |
| 2026-08-14 | 32% |
| 2026-08-12 | 19% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will no listed leader be out before 2027 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, November 3, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 58%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will no listed leader be out before 2027 — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 24 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 19% on August 12, 2026 to 58% on November 3, 2026 — a change of 39 points.
- Will no listed leader be out before 2027 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 24 tracked days the odds ranged between 19% and 66%. The final reading of 58% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will no listed leader be out before 2027” for 24 days, since August 12, 2026. As of November 3, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 58%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 19% to 58%, ranging between 19% and 66% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on November 3, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.