Today’s odds
As of August 27, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 79%.
▲ 4 since the previous update. ▲ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 15, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
79%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 26 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 75% | 79% | ▲ 4 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | 79% |
| 2026-08-26 | 75% |
| 2026-08-25 | 76% |
| 2026-08-24 | 74% |
| 2026-08-23 | 74% |
| 2026-08-22 | 80% |
| 2026-08-21 | 81% |
| 2026-08-20 | 77% |
| 2026-08-19 | 75% |
| 2026-07-31 | 40% |
| 2026-07-30 | 35% |
| 2026-07-18 | 34% |
| 2026-07-17 | 25% |
| 2026-07-16 | 19% |
| 2026-07-15 | 28% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of August 27, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 79%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 15 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 28% on July 15, 2026 to 79% on August 27, 2026 — a change of 51 points.
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 15 tracked days the odds ranged between 19% and 81%. The current reading of 79% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026” for 15 days, since July 15, 2026. As of August 27, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 79%. The chance for a yes has risen from 28% to 79%, ranging between 19% and 81% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.