Final tracked odds
As of September 14, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 58%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 25 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution before Jan 1, 2027?
Everything Else · tracked since September 9, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 14, 2026
58%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 10 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 58% | 58% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Before Jan 1, 2027 |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | 58% |
| 2026-09-10 | 58% |
| 2026-09-09 | 34% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution before Jan 1, 2027 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 14, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 58%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution before Jan 1, 2027 — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 34% on September 9, 2026 to 58% on September 14, 2026 — a change of 24 points.
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution before Jan 1, 2027 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 3 tracked days the odds ranged between 34% and 58%. The final reading of 58% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution before Jan 1, 2027” for 3 days, since September 9, 2026. As of September 14, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 58%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 34% to 58%, ranging between 34% and 58% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 14, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.