Today’s odds
As of September 1, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 6%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 14, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
6%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 10 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | 6% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | 6% |
| 2026-08-10 | 6% |
| 2026-08-09 | 6% |
| 2026-08-08 | 6% |
| 2026-07-18 | 6% |
| 2026-07-17 | 6% |
| 2026-07-16 | 6% |
| 2026-07-15 | 6% |
| 2026-07-14 | 6% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of September 1, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 6%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026 — how much have the odds move?
- Barely. Across 9 tracked days the odds held near 6%, ending at 6% on September 1, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026” for 9 days, since July 14, 2026. As of September 1, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 6%. The chance for a yes has risen from 6% to 6% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.