The Morning Line

Will Tadej Pogacar win the 2026 Tour de France?

Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 24, 2026

98%

Final tracked odds

As of July 24, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 98%.

▲ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 94% on July 24, 2026. Tadej Pogacar won.

How the odds have moved

tracking begins0%25%50%75%100%Jul 4Jul 9Jul 14Jul 19Jul 24Tadej Pogacar — Jul 4: 78%Tadej Pogacar — Jul 5: 76%Tadej Pogacar — Jul 6: 78%Tadej Pogacar — Jul 7: 84%Tadej Pogacar — Jul 8: 84%Tadej Pogacar — Jul 9: 83%Tadej Pogacar — Jul 10: 92%Tadej Pogacar — Jul 11: 92%Tadej Pogacar — Jul 12: 92%Tadej Pogacar — Jul 13: 94%Tadej Pogacar — Jul 14: 96%Tadej Pogacar — Jul 15: 94%Tadej Pogacar — Jul 16: 94%Tadej Pogacar — Jul 17: 94%Tadej Pogacar — Jul 18: 94%Tadej Pogacar — Jul 19: 98%Tadej Pogacar — Jul 20: 98%Tadej Pogacar — Jul 21: 96%Tadej Pogacar — Jul 22: 98%Tadej Pogacar — Jul 23: 96%Tadej Pogacar — Jul 24: 98%98%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 23TodayMove
Tadej Pogacar96%98%▲ 1
Full history table
DateTadej Pogacar
2026-07-2498%
2026-07-2396%
2026-07-2298%
2026-07-2196%
2026-07-2098%
2026-07-1998%
2026-07-1894%
2026-07-1794%
2026-07-1694%
2026-07-1594%
2026-07-1496%
2026-07-1394%
2026-07-1292%
2026-07-1192%
2026-07-1092%
2026-07-0983%
2026-07-0884%
2026-07-0784%
2026-07-06 *78%
2026-07-05 *76%
2026-07-04 *78%

* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will Tadej Pogacar win the 2026 Tour de France — what were the odds?
As of the last morning we tracked it, July 24, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 98%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will Tadej Pogacar win the 2026 Tour de France — did the odds go up or down?
Up. Over the 18 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 84% on July 7, 2026 to 98% on July 24, 2026 — a change of 14 points.
Will Tadej Pogacar win the 2026 Tour de France — what were the highest and lowest odds?
Over 18 tracked days the odds ranged between 83% and 98%. The final reading of 98% sits inside that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Tadej Pogacar win the 2026 Tour de France” for 18 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 24, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 98%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 84% to 98%, ranging between 83% and 98% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on July 24, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.

More questions we track

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.